Rome, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

443
FXUS61 KBGM 222252
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
652 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled and showery weather pattern arrives this afternoon and
continues through the work week. A series of fronts and waves of low
pressure will bring clouds and shower chances each day. The weekend
is trending drier with high pressure likely to build over the area.
Temperatures look to remain mild, with near to above average readings
expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds and shower chances will increase across the west-central
portion of the CWA later this afternoon and evening. The latest CAMS
(14z HRRR, 12z 3km NAM) are generally in good agreement that a line
of showers and embedded thunderstorms will move slowly east,
arriving in our Finger Lakes, Central S. Tier and Syracuse metro
areas between about 4-6 PM today. These showers and storms will
generally be moving/training SW to NE, and only laterally drifting
off to the southeast over time. By around 8PM the latest guidance
is showing a cluster/line of showers and embedded thunderstorms
extending from around Utica-Rome southwest to Syracuse, Watkins
Glen and Corning NY. The showers and isolated thunderstorms
gradually drift east-southeast...potentially reaching the
Binghamton--Towanda--Norwich and Cooperstown area around or
just before midnight. Another batch of showers and storms then
looks to arrive from the west, tracking across most of the
forecast area during the predawn hours early Tuesday morning.
Rainfall amounts by daybreak should be mostly between 0.10 and
0.50 inches, except locally up to 1 inch where showers and
storms are most persistent. It will be mild and mostly cloudy
tonight, with lows in the mid-50s to low 60s.
Tuesday will feature more unsettled, cloudy and showery weather as a
weak wave of low pressure traverses the forecast area. Expect
scattered to numerous showers and storms around much of the day,
with widespread showers (and a chance for thunderstorms) forecast
for the afternoon hours. Additional rainfall amounts Tuesday into
Tuesday night should range from a quarter to three quarters of an
inch for most locations, with locally higher amounts possible
in thunderstorms. MLCAPE could reach 500-900 J/kg in the afternoon
and deep layer shear is around 20 kts in the 0-6km layer; therefore
at this time the overall setup is not looking favorable for any
severe storms, but generally thunderstorms do have a good chance
to develop. PWATs are progged to be around 1.50 inches, so
certainly elevated, but it should not be enough for any hydro
concerns...especially considering the antecedent very dry
conditions and low stream flows. Outside of the showers and
storms it will be mostly cloudy, humid and warm on Tuesday with
highs in the 70s.
A few showers and isolate t`storms linger Tuesday evening, but
coverage and probabilities should decrease overnight as the wave of
low pressure exits east. Staying mild with lows in the mid-50s to
lower 60s once again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
This period starts off largely dry Wednesday morning, with just a
slight chance for an isolated shower around. Chances for scattered
showers gradually increase Wednesday afternoon as the next front
approaches from the southwest late in the day. Overall it still
looks like a mostly cloudy and warm day with highs well into the 70s.
The next more substantial weather system is progged to move
through the area late Wednesday night through the day on
Thursday. Exact timing is still a little uncertain. This system
is forecast to have ample moisture associated with it, as PWATS
rise to around 1.80 or 1.90 inches and surface dew points hold
well into the 60s. The latest guidance tracks an area of low
pressure along the Ohio River, into western NY or the Lake
Ontario region by Thursday morning. The broad upper level trough
and deep southwest flow will aid in increasing moisture transport
into our CWA. There should be several round of rain and possible
embedded thunderstorms; the first round will be with the warm
front lifting north, then the next with the low and eventual
cold front Thursday afternoon. QPF and PoPs has been trending up
with this system. We are now advertising high end likely to low
end categorical PoPs along with a widespread 0.75 to 1.50 inches
of rain expected. These PoPs and QPF could even trend a little
higher in subsequent model guidance, and this will be something
to monitor. This as the look of a steady, soaking, largely
beneficial rainfall event at this time. With all the rain around
temperatures will be a little cooler, on Thursday with highs in
the upper 60s to mid-70s expected. Showers linger Thursday
night, but should gradually taper off, becoming more scattered
in nature late. Another warm night with lows in the mid 50s to
lower 60s expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper level trough axis moves over and through the region on
Friday. This should keep conditions mainly cloudy with scattered to
perhaps numerous showers around once again. QPF amounts should be
lighter with this upper level system, as pwats fall back to around 1-
1.25 inches and we lose the deeper moisture. There could be a few
breaks of sun during the day, and this should allow high temperatures
to once again reach into the 70s. Friday night and especially
Saturday is now trending drier in the latest model guidance. At
this time it appears Saturday will feature partly sunny conditions
as weak high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley region.
Temperatures are still warm well into the 70s.
Sunday is likely dry as well, however some the deterministic model
guidance is hinting at a quick frontal passage sweeping down from
Canada late Saturday night and Sunday morning. This front is lacking
moisture and a strong surface high quickly builds in on its heels.
Therefore, kept the forecast dry Sunday, in-line with the latest NBM
guidance. The NBM/Ensembles continue to favor dry and mostly sunny
conditions under high pressure looking ahead to next Monday.
Temperatures hold steady with highs mainly in the 70s and overnight
lows in the mid-40s to mid-50s over the weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low confidence forecast through the overnight and tomorrow. Mainly
VFR conditions are expected this evening, but showers moving
into the area could bring some MVFR ceilings and visibility tonight.
By late tonight/early Tuesday morning, widespread MVFR to Fuel
Alternate ceilings are expected with IFR ceilings possible at
KBGM, KELM, and possibly at KITH. Shower and thunderstorm
intensity and coverage is uncertain through the overnight hours,
so conditions will be dependent on whether or not showers hold
together by the time they reach our region later tonight.
For tomorrow, at least MVFR ceilings are expected, but AVP will
have the best chance to clear out and then see showers or
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Showers with occasional
restrictions possible.
Thursday...A chance for scattered showers and associated
restrictions.
Friday through Saturday...Generally VFR, but still a chance for
some showers.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BJG/MPK

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion