Rockdale, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

908
FXUS61 KRLX 251749
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
149 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front continues to make eastward progress through the
area this evening. Rain remains a possibility through the
weekend as a few upper level disturbances pass by.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...
Radar trends early this afternoon depict scattered development
up and down the WV foothills and mountains, denoting the current
location of the north-south oriented frontal boundary. Behind
this front, westerly to northwesterly flow has encouraged light
rainfall embedded within lingering stratus passing through the
Ohio River Valley. Potential for rain will gradually diminish
through the course of the evening into tonight as the front
makes more eastward progress out of the forecast area. Orphaned
moisture festering over the area will be conducive for low
stratus and fog formation through the predawn hours Friday
morning.
Ceilings will gradually improve throughout the day Friday, but
at a sluggish pace. Dry weather will return to parts of the
forecast area, while low end chances of showers prevail along
the mountains and the southern coalfields throughout the day.
Otherwise, partially clearing skies will bolster afternoon
temperatures into the upper 70s/low 80s in the Tri-State area
and 60s/70s along the higher terrain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...
Additional opportunities for showers and afternoon
thunderstorms, especially along the higher terrain, will
continue into the weekend as an upper level trough comes to a
halt over the area. Activity will be driven mostly by daytime
heating, and will diminish in coverage from west to east each
evening across the lower elevations, while prevailing longer
into the overnight hours along the mountains. A slight recovery
in afternoon temperatures will return daytime highs into the low
80s in the Tri-State area amd 60s/70s along the mountains and
foothills.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...
A cut off upper level low stationed over the forecast area will
enter into a halting pattern for the start of the new week amid
tropical activity swirling around the eastern seaboard and
further out into the Atlantic Ocean. The latest global model
suite suggests landfall of one of these tropical systems off
the Georgia and South Carolina coastline sometime during the day
on Monday, with the northwestern flank of accompanying showers
and storms nosing up into the Greenbrier Valley and the
mountainous areas of the Appalachians. Off to the west, a
building ridge will supply drier weather to parts of the Ohio
Valley, which some of our western zones of the forecast area
could relish under. It will be a battle between these two
features of where the demarcation line from dry and active
weather will set up each day from Monday onward as a result.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...
A frontal boundary sliding through the area today will continue
to serve up a multitude of flight restrictions in the way of
lowered ceilings and visibilities in the midst of passing
showers and storms. At the time of writing, all TAF sites, with
the exception of EKN, were reporting MVFR conditions or worse,
and will likely remain the case as we roll through the afternoon
and evening.
While the frontal passage is progged to occur by tonight,
excessive leftover moisture will yield IFR/LIFR ceilings through
the overnight hours into Friday morning. Visibility restrictions
will lift first after sunrise, while ceilings will stubbornly
fester overhead longer into the day. Western terminals will
enter back into VFR conditions first by the end of the valid TAF
period, while eastern terminals will still be transforming to
VFR by this time tomorrow.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rainfall and associated
restrictions will likely vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR is possible at night with low stratus and/or fog through the
weekend.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MEK

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion