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Riverview, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

536
FXUS63 KDTX 240704
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 304 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous at times showers with some embedded thunderstorms are expected through the day.

- Heavy downpours leading to highly localized rainfall amounts will be possible. This may lead to localized flooding, especially for urban areas.

- Temperatures in the 70s through the remainder of the week, which will generally be at to slightly above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A closed low currently centered across the eastern U.P. is expected to retrograde into northern lower Michigan today as a secondary shortwave feature pivots southwest around the parent circulation. Concurrently, an additional wave progressing eastward across the Plains will induce some interaction with the parent low with attempted phasing of the features. Models have struggled with the overall evolution of the longwave pattern, but this will result in the deepening the overall trough through the Great Lakes, maintaining broad ascent and a positive backdrop for for continued shower and thunderstorm chances today and tomorrow.

Of particular concern for this morning... The latest 00Z hi-res models output a robust signal for heavy rain from the MI/OH border up through the urban Metro region, with a secondary signal across the Thumb. This is derived from a subtle low-level perturbation tha t will produce a localized zone of enhanced convergence and weak cyclonic curvature providing a focal point for ascent. While this signal is not particularly strong and covers a relatively small spatial domain, the slow storm motion (15 knots or less) and slow translation speed of the convergence has the potential to sustain heavy rainfall and training over the same area. Additionally, this aligns with the pw maxima of 1.25-1.50" (90th percentile w.r.t climatology), enhancing rainfall efficiency. The ECMWF EFI, while not particularly sensitive to mesoscale details, highlights this particular region with values of .7-.8 and SoT > 0, lending confidence that some locations along and south of I-94 have the potential to experience some sustained heavy rainfall through the morning.

Father north into the I-69 corridor through the Thumb, models depict additional low-level confluence into the late morning hours, suggesting potential for a secondary rainfall maximum. In any case under the broader synoptic setup, scattered, to at time numerous, showers with embedded thunderstorms will be possible for all of SE MI into the afternoon and evening, which includes highly localized rainfall totals given any stronger storms and/or training. While widespread flooding is not anticipated, flood or flash flood products may be leveraged based on observed trends. Please see the hydrology section for additional details. Isolated activity is possible overnight, but coverage will be sparse.

An additional uptick in coverage will be possible during daylight hours tomorrow, but the signal is not as pronounced with less mesoscale enhancement. The upper-level trough axis swings out of the Great Lakes late tonight through Friday morning. A shortwave will pivot over Michigan Friday evening which bring the low-end chance for a light shower favored over the Tri-Cities or northern Thumb, but otherwise high pressure builds over the state through the weekend into early next week, limiting rain chances.

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.MARINE...

Persistent upper level trough over the region will lead to continued chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms across the region through Thursday before the trough finally pushes east of the area. A slow moving front, stationary at times, draped across the region will be the primary focus for these showers with waves of upper level support at times. Overall risk of severe weather is low but an isolated storm may produce a gust near 35 knots or small hail. Wind field will be light with a weak gradient over the region so winds and waves should not become a concern in the next few days. High pressure then builds in for the end of the week bringing quieter weather to the region again.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A storm system lifting northeast across the Ohio valley into Michigan will produce widely scattered to numerous at times showers through the day with some embedded thunderstorms. Given slower storm motion and the potential for heavy downpours, highly localized rainfall totals will be possible pending any training and thunderstorm activity. Basin averaged rainfall totals will range between a half-inch to an inch with highly localized rainfall totals of 1-3+ inches possible. There is a signal for this higher end rainfall potential to fall around the MI/OH border and through the urban Metro regions, but overall confidence of heavy rainfall timing, coverage, and location is low. Localized flooding of urban, low-lying, and poor draining areas along with rises in area rivers will be possible with higher end rainfall totals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1143 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

AVIATION...

Convection has diminished to isolated showers/thunderstorms as instability has waned. Expect a redevelopment of showers/thunderstorms Wednesday as daytime heating develops and short wave forcing increase. The coverage of mid/high clouds is adding a degree of uncertainty as to the coverage of fog/low cloud development overnight into Wed morning. This is most notable at the Detroit terminals where there is still a respectable temp/dewpoint spread. This has warranted backing off the LIFR conditions in the Detroit terminals. From PTK northward, any period of clearing tonight will support a rapid low cloud and/or fog expansion given the resident moisture in the low levels.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Any convection during the overnight and early morning will remain isolated. Thunderstorm chances increase Wed afternoon, but coverage and timing uncertainties support refraining from including a mention in the terminals at this time.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet overnight and Wednesday.

* Low for cigs/vsby to 200ft and/or 1/2sm late tonight/early Wednesday morning.

* Low for thunderstorms tonight and Wednesday.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. &&

$$

DISCUSSION...AM MARINE.......DRK HYDROLOGY....AM AVIATION.....SC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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