Riesel, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

311
FXUS64 KFWD 061816
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
116 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and mostly dry weather will continue with temperatures 5 to
  10 degrees above normal.
- Low (10 to 20%) chance of showers for parts of East and Central
  Texas today and tomorrow afternoon. The threat of lightning is
  less than 10%.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tomorrow/
Generally speaking, the weather will be warm and mostly sunny the
next couple days with seemingly little change to the casual
observer. However there are some nuances. The first will bring a
low (10-15%) chance of brief showers to East Texas this
afternoon. A filling low pressure system over eastern Louisiana
will continue to drift north, but a weak moisture boundary along
the western periphery of the low should move into the eastern
parts of our forecast area this afternoon. This boundary is moving
underneath a strong subsidence inversion, so the additional lift
and moisture will be limited to the lower troposphere--generally
below 700 mb or 10,000 ft. With cloud bases around 5-7,000 ft, a
very shallow precipitation- bearing layer will limit the chance of
precip to 10% or less. Recent high-res guidance also develops a
few showers across the Big Country this afternoon, but similar
reasons to above (plus an even drier sub-cloud layer) will limit
the threat of measurable precip to next to zero. This boundary
will washout this evening resulting in light winds overnight.
A cold front, currently stalled over the Panhandles and Kansas,
will nudge south and move through North and Central Texas
tomorrow. I would love to advertise that this will finally bring
an end to the abnormal warmth, but it won`t. It will bring a
northerly wind shift and a slightly higher (up to 20%!) chance
of showers across East and Central Texas tomorrow afternoon, but
that`s about it. Strong subsidence aloft will still reside over
the region, so the chance of a thunderstorm will still be less
than 10% tomorrow. Temperature and dewpoint values tomorrow will
be quite similar to today.
Bonnette
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Onward/
The high pressure center behind tomorrow`s cold front will build
to our northwest in the middle parts of this week. It will have
the most influence on our temperatures on Wednesday afternoon when
highs along the Red River fall into the low 80s. However, our
Brazos Valley locations will be largely unaffected with highs
remaining in the low 90s. A westward moving moisture plume will
also move across the region on Wednesday, making the weather feel
very similar to today/tomorrow despite the post-frontal airmass.
Deeper mixing Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will steadily lower
the dewpoint temperature each afternoon.
A dry return flow pattern returns this weekend. These patterns
occur on the back side of high pressure systems when strong south
flow develops over the Southern Plains but the better moisture
remains near the coast. The combination of dry, breezy, and warm
conditions may result in an elevated fire weather threat Saturday
and possibly Sunday for parts of the area before moisture creeps
back into the area early next week.
Bonnette
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
VFR and light winds will prevail this afternoon and tonight. The
winds will generally be out of the east varying between ~050 and
~160 depending on your location. We added an extra line to the DFW
TAF to show potential for a northerly wind shift this afternoon if
the winds speeds get strong enough, but wind speeds fall below 05
kts after 00Z at all terminals and become light/calm for most of
the night. A cold front and northerly wind shift will move through
the region tomorrow. Timing is a bit wishy washy, but generally
around 15Z for the D10 TAFs and a few hours later for ACT.
A few showers are expected to develop east of D10 this afternoon
and south of D10 tomorrow. The threat of lightning with any
showery activity in our area is less than 10% and next to 0%
within D10 for the next 48 hours.
Bonnette
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  69  89  66  85 /   0   0  10   5   5
Waco                90  68  90  68  88 /   5   0  20  10   5
Paris               87  67  87  64  83 /  10   5  20   5   5
Denton              89  63  88  61  84 /   0   0  10   5   5
McKinney            89  65  88  64  85 /   5   0  10   5   5
Dallas              91  70  91  67  87 /   0   0  10   5   5
Terrell             89  65  89  64  85 /  10   0  20   5   5
Corsicana           90  70  91  69  88 /  10   0  20  10   5
Temple              91  67  89  66  88 /   5   5  20  10  10
Mineral Wells       92  63  89  62  85 /   0   0  10   5   5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion