Rice, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

458
FXUS66 KOTX 250755
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1255 AM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Vigorous dry cold front passage Thursday with windy and dry
  conditions resulting in critical fire weather conditions.
- Winds may also produce blowing dust across the Waterville
  Plateau into the Columbia Basin Thursday afternoon.
- Patchy frost for northern mountain valleys and northern
  Panhandle overnight Thursday and Friday.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm conditions will continue into Thursday with high
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Windy conditions and
very low RHs are forecast with a cold front passage on
Thursday. The combination of gusty winds and dry conditions will
lead to critical fire weather conditions across much of central
and eastern Washington. Chilly mornings Friday and Saturday
before temperatures see a bump up above normal over the
weekend. Cooler temperatures and chances for showers by early
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT PASSAGE...
Thursday: A robust cold front remains on track to sweep through the
Inland Northwest bringing gusty west winds and mixing very dry air
down to the surface. The front will reach the Cascades in the early
to mid afternoon and will move eastward into the ID Panhandle by the
early evening hours. Winds will start out of the west/southwest
prior to the frontal passage and will shift out of the northwest
after the front passes. Sustained wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph and
gusts of 30 to 40 mph are anticipated through the Cascade gaps, over
the Waterville Plateau, and across the Columbia Basin Thursday
afternoon and evening. A band of mid to high level clouds is
expected with the front, but no precipitation is forecast. As winds
pick up, very dry air will mix down to the surface from higher up in
the atmosphere and RHs will drop into the 10-15 percent range across
eastern WA and 15-25 percent for the ID Panhandle. Fire weather
impacts will be the main concern with this front. There is high
confidence in wind speeds and RH values meeting the thresholds for
critical fire weather conditions. New and ongoing fires will have
the potential to spread rapidly. Thus, a Red Flag Warning has been
issued for Thursday covering the Cascades, Columbia Basin, and
Spokane area down to the Blues. For western Chelan County, the watch
is out through Friday morning with poor RH recoveries in the
forecast and gusty winds expected to linger. In addition to creating
fire weather impacts, winds may also generate blowing dust over the
Waterville Plateau and across the Columbia Basin with winter wheat
planting underway. High temperatures Thursday will be 2 to 7 degrees
cooler than on Wednesday in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Friday through Sunday: Weak ridging will redevelop Friday, then the
next trough approaches the West Coast through the weekend. Following
Thursday`s cold front, temperatures on Friday will be around 10
degrees cooler in the upper 60s to mid 70s, then will nudge back up
a few degrees into the 70s and low 80s Saturday and Sunday.
Sunday may be the last day we see highs in the 80s for the year
across the Inland Northwest. With a dry airmass over the region
Thursday night and Friday night, overnight temperatures will
cool into the 30s for some of our colder spots and sheltered
northern valleys including in Republic, Winthrop, Colville,
Chewelah, Deer Park, and Priest River.
Sunday night through Wednesday: The offshore trough will push inland
through the start of next week bringing persistent cooler
temperatures and chances for showers. Precip chances will move into
the Cascades Sunday, then expand eastward over the rest of the
region Sunday night into Monday. How much precip will fall remains
uncertain at this point. The Cascades will have the best chances of
seeing wetting rains, but confidence is lower for locations east of
the Cascades. /Fewkes
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Smoke, especially near wildfires, will continue
impacting KEAT, which is currently at MVFR and saw IFR
conditions this morning with thicker smoke. It is anticipated
that KEAT will again see IFR conditions tomorrow morning as
well. Around 19-20Z, a cold front will move through the area,
leading to gusty west/southwest winds throughout the area. Wind
gusts will reach 20-30kts, with KEAT seeing highest chances for
30kt gusts. This may help blow some smoke out of the area. With
very dry conditions anticipated with the frontal passage, these
winds could lead to new fire starts and increased fire behavior.
Additionally, the wind gusts combined with the dry conditions
could result in blowing dust potential near KMWH. Ceilings for
all other TAF sites are anticipated to stay at VFR through the
TAF forecast period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in IFR conditions at KEAT beginning early this
morning. High confidence for VFR conditions at all other TAF
sites. For KMWH, smoke and or blowing dust may result in reduced
visibility below 6 SM with MVFR conditions for Thursday
afternoon/evening. /AS
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        81  46  69  47  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  81  46  69  46  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        78  42  66  42  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       86  52  74  50  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       80  34  71  36  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      78  46  68  46  72  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        81  48  67  49  77  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     82  43  73  47  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      78  51  73  55  76  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           81  44  74  51  74  51 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-East Portion
     of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National
     Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington North Cascades
     (Zone 698)-Eastern Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -Spokane
     Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades
     (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse  -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow
     Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville
     Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
     Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Friday for Central Chelan
     County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Waterville
     Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western
     Okanogan County.
     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Friday
     for East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696).
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion