Republic Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

970
FXUS61 KPBZ 111701
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
101 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds and isolated light precipitation chances with a low
pressure system over the Great Lakes. A coastal low may increase
the chances of light rain showers east of Pittsburgh after
midnight. Dry and warm conditions expected Tuesday into
Wednesday with a building ridge.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Partly cloudy conditions with low pressure disturbance nearby
---------------------------------------------------------------
Low-level clouds will continue to linger passed sunset as low
pressure system over the Great Lakes tracks through the region.
Probability of precipitation is low given weak forcing and
notable dry airmass.
Temperatures around and south of Pittsburgh are expected to
trend near average with some clearing. Meanwhile, areas north
of Pittsburgh may trend below average with a prolonged period
of cloud cover and noticeable cold advection over the next 6
hours as the low`s center tracks across Lake Erie.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Coastal low may bring rain showers into portions of the region Sunday
  into Monday
- Drier conditions expected Tuesday
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An Atlantic Coast low currently impacting the Carolinas will
continue to move northward over the next 24 to 48 hours. As
northeast winds transport Atlantic moisture into eastern and
central Pennsylvania, low-level cloud coverage is expected to
increase significantly east of Pittsburgh. Any precipitation
that develops Sunday into Monday will likely be terrain-induced,
resulting from southeastern upsloping. A tightening pressure
gradient along the Laurel Highlands and West Virginia ridges may
also lead to breezy conditions from early Sunday morning
through Monday morning.
Rainfall amounts be likely be less than 0.25 inch across the
region; isolated spots in eastern Tucker may measure over a half
inch.
Drier conditions are likely early Tuesday as a ridge axis shifts
from the Plains into the Ohio River Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry/warm weather continues into Tuesday
- Cooler and dry mid-week before uncertainty builds late-week with
large-scale pattern
-------------------------------------------------------------------
At this time there seems to be enough agreement that the wave exits
the Eastern Seaboard meaningfully on Tuesday and that subtle height
rises help push highs back into the low to mid 70s (widespread
probabilities greater than 70% for highs > 70 degrees south of I-
80).
Ensembles then diverge on exactly how they interact a Hudson Bay
trough and a high confidence central CONUS ridge but most come to a
northwest flow regime across the region by midweek with Canadian
high pressure settling across the region. This would favor a nod
towards lower temperatures, clearer skies (with a few efficient
radiative cooling nights possible) and increased POPs closer to Lake
Erie.
By the end of next week, ensembles diverge on pressing the central
CONUS ridge eastward towards us or allowing the Hudson Bay trough to
cutoff across the Northeast. A cutoff would favor continued
northwest flow, while parking under the ridge would return
unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR cigs continues to linger across the region as low pressure
disturbance continue to track just north of Lake Erie. Precipitation
chances are consider low for all terminals through 06Z Sunday.
A coastal low tracking up the eastern seaboard could return
MVFR to IFR restrictions and showers Sunday morning. There will
likely be an east-west cutoff of to the restrictions with the
highest probability lying farther east, but some uncertainty
exists with how far west sufficient moisture exists. The terrain
may create moisture from spilling over towards AGC/BVI/MGW/PIT.
Terminals that will most likely experience impacts would be LBE
and DUJ due to upsloping.
.OUTLOOK...
Probabilities for ceiling restrictions and showers will remain
highest farther east with an east/west cutoff likely through
late Sunday/early Monday.
High pressure will build back into the region midweek.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...Hefferan

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion