Redrock, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

640
FXUS64 KEPZ 041122
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
522 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 453 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
- Warm and dry weather into early next week. High temperatures
   around 5-7 degrees above normal through Tuesday.
- Breezy conditions Saturday.
- Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the middle part of
   next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1015 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Late summer-like temperatures continue this early October as a
ridge of high pressure persists over northern Mexico, while a
Pacific trough moves inland over the Great Basin by Saturday.
These two features are working in tandem to draw up mostly warm
and dry air with southwest flow aloft. Thus unseasonably warm
temperatures will continue through the weekend into early next
week. As models have been showing, this broad southwest flow was
able to draw high level moisture (above 400mb) from TS Octave over
eastern Arizona and western New Mexico today. It did allow CU
buildups today over southwest New Mexico but appears no rain was
able to develop from these clouds. This thin, tropical plume will
continue east overnight, reaching the eastern CWA Saturday
afternoon. Again, this likely will help some CU development but
rain is expected. The southwest flow aloft will help create decent
lee-side low eastern Colorado, allowing breezy winds to develop
Saturday afternoon.
Broad southwest flow aloft will continue into Monday. Expect more
dry weather Sunday/Monday with high temps continuing around 5-7
degrees above normal. By late Monday and moreso on Tuesday, the
influence of tropical feature Priscilla will begin to be felt over
our area. While she will contribute little, if any moisture
initially, she is able build up sub-tropical ridge from the
northern Gulf of America across northern Mexico. This will allow
some sub-tropical moisture over northern Mexico and even the Gulf
of America, to advect in as mid-level flow turns more
south/southwest. Thus chances of rain will start again in the
forecast, if not Monday night, then Tuesday and Wednesday. GFS and
ECMWF are pretty similar through Thursday, though the ECMWF does
not advect as much moisture up. Both models show upper ridge
building over/near the CWA Thursday through Saturday for drier
weather.
If you want to look way out, the GFS is advertising a sort of
"monsoon renaissance" as days 9-10 show more tropical moisture
streaming up with what would be tropical feature Raymond.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period with skies generally
SKC to FEW through the morning. Winds light and VRB will become
southwest at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots this afternoon.
Skies in the afternoon will be FEW to SCT at 20-25kft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 453 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Warm and dry weather conditions continue for today with temperatures
slightly above average and Min RH values between 17 to 25 percent
across most of the areas, above 30 for NM zone 113. Breezy southwest
winds this afternoon with winds of 10-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph
possible. Smoke ventilation rates this afternoon will be very good
to excellent area wide.
Very similar min RHs expected Sunday afternoon but 20
foot wind speeds will be lowered (generally 5-10 mph but isolated
locations could see 15 mph winds over the eastern portions of the
Black Range. Min RHs will be 20-30% in the lowlands and 40-50% in
the mountains Monday with dry conditions and light afternoon
breezes. Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday which increases
min RHs both days to 25-35% in the lowlands and 50-65% in the
mountains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  67  90  67  91 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            58  86  59  87 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces               57  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               60  85  61  87 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               45  63  45  64 /  10   0   0  20
Truth or Consequences    54  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              50  77  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   55  87  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                55  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       66  87  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                60  88  62  89 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             65  91  67  93 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               60  80  61  82 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                   65  89  65  91 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             62  85  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           63  85  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            58  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    55  87  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 59  88  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                59  84  60  86 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  49  75  49  75 /   0   0   0  20
Mescalero                49  75  50  76 /   0   0   0  20
Timberon                 47  72  49  72 /  10   0   0  20
Winston                  43  76  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                52  83  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                54  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             45  77  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   50  80  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    52  83  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               48  78  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  52  79  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   54  84  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  55  84  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           55  85  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               53  78  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...38-Rogers

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion