Redington Shores Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

067
FXUS62 KTBW 090034
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
834 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
- Hazardous marine conditions will continue into the weekend.
- Limited heat risk with warm and humid conditions through
   Friday.
- Drier and slightly cooler conditions are expected this weekend
   into the first half of next week.
.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Forecast remains on track with no changes made. Spotty shower
activity remained confined to SWFL/S interior locations this
afternoon and evening so far, diminishing remainder of the
evening. Low-level moisture return from the Atlantic overnight
into Thursday may spell some areas of low clouds late tonight into
the morning across the Nature Coast into WCFL, before more
widespread cloudiness develops during the day as a surface trough
just offshore the E FL coast and Bahamas sharpens before a
surface low forms along its axis late Thursday into Friday. The
resulting tightening gradient will lead to breezy NE/ENE winds
developing Thursday afternoon across the area, with Atlantic
moisture streaming into the area leading to isolated to scattered
showers and a few storms, mainly across the interior and SWFL
during the afternoon and evening hours. Afternoon highs remain
seasonably warm but a few degrees lower than today, with highs in
the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Scattered mainly light showers are moving quickly west across
parts of the Nature Coast as well as southern interior into
southwest Florida at this time. These showers will continue to
move west and weaken as they move out into the gulf later this
afternoon and early evening followed by mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies overnight.
For Thursday the breezy east to northeast flow will persist with
some deeper moisture spreading north to around the Interstate 4
corridor. This will combine with daytime heating leading to
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during mainly the
afternoon and early evening hours across much of the region. A
similar pattern is expected for Friday.
As we move into the weekend an area of low pressure is expected to
develop off the southeast U.S. coast and then move north along the
eastern seaboard. As this occurs the flow around system along with
high pressure well to the north will usher in some drier and
slightly cooler air into the area. A few light showers/sprinkles
will remain possible over the interior Saturday afternoon,
otherwise rain chances will become slim to none for the first half
of next week. Daytime highs will continue to climb into the 80s
during this time, but dew points are forecast to dip into the
upper 50s and 60s making it feel much more comfortable.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
NE/ENE winds 5-10 knots overnight into Thursday morning,
increasing on Thursday afternoon with higher gusts, and
shower/storm chances bringing potential for MVFR/LCL IFR
conditions for PGD/FMY/RSW mainly 19-23Z. Period of late morning
to early afternoon MVFR cigs developing for southern terminals,
with lower likelihood for northern terminals, lifting to VFR for
remainder of period outside of convection.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Breezy winds will produce hazardous marine conditions at times
through the week and into the weekend. A moderately tight pressure
gradient will keep gusty northeast to east winds over parts of the
coastal waters at SCEC levels through Thursday with winds 15-20
knots and seas 3-5 feet. The gradient tightens with increasing
winds Thursday night into the weekend as a cold front moves
through the waters with a SCA likely being needed during this
time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Warm temperatures and humid surface conditions will continue with
occasionaly gusty east to northeast winds. Isolated to scattered
mainly afternoon and evening showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected through Friday. A cold front is expected to move through
the region this weekend with drier conditions into early next week,
however RH values should remain above critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  90  74  86 /   0  20  10  30
FMY  75  89  73  87 /  10  50  30  50
GIF  73  88  73  85 /   0  30  20  40
SRQ  73  89  73  87 /   0  20  10  30
BKV  70  88  71  84 /   0  20  10  30
SPG  75  87  74  84 /   0  20  10  20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Close
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion