Raymond, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

646
FXUS63 KOAX 071110
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
610 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler weather will persist through Monday with highs mostly
  in the 70s. Warmer weather arrives by Tuesday, with highs
  climbing into the upper 70s to mid-80s.
- A few showers and storms may push into southeast Nebraska
  Monday morning (15-30% chance). Higher chances arrive late
  Monday afternoon into Monday night (30-60% chance) with a
  few storms possibly on the stronger side.
- Off and on shower and storm chances (around 15-30%) will
  continue into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Early morning analysis showed an upper level trough axis just
to our east, stretching from the Great Lakes through IA and into
MO and KS, but surface high pressure was locked in and
dominating the area. Clear skies and light winds were allowing
temperatures to tank fairly quickly, with readings as of 3 AM in
the 40s in most locations. Dewpoint depressions were also quite
low in many locations, so could see some patchy fog develop
into Sunday morning. Otherwise, the surface high will start to
push east today with winds becoming southeasterly to southerly.
This should gain us around 4-5 degrees on temperatures from
yesterday, with highs mostly in the mid to upper 70s.
Heading into tonight, some shortwave energy currently located
in the ID/WY/UT border area will start to push through NE and KS
with an associated loosely-organized surface low developing
eastward across the Dakotas dragging a north-to-south oriented
surface trough along with it. Ahead of the trough we`ll see
strengthening low level moisture transport across central NE
into western KS with guidance in good agreement of shower and
storm development by early Monday morning. Latest guidance keeps
most of this activity to our south and west, but think we`ll
see some light spotty showers and perhaps some isolated storms
creep into southeast NE through Monday morning. At the very
least, we should see increasing cloud cover, which could
somewhat limit instability for potential storm redevelopment
Monday afternoon/evening. However, guidance remains in good
agreement of a plume of lower to mid 60s dewpoints edging into
at least western portions of the forecast area, with MUCAPE
values in the 1500-2500 J/kg range. The combination of passing
shortwave energy and moisture transport pointing into the area
should be enough for some additional shower and storm
development during the afternoon and evening, though there will
be some capping to overcome. And while deep layer shear is
somewhat limited, 30 kts would be enough for at least some
degree of storm organization. As a result, could see a few
stronger storms capable of hail and gusty winds, with an outside
shot (currently less than 5%, but not 0) of a severe storm.
Storms look like they could linger into Tuesday, but should
gradually dissipate through the day. Guidance then diverges with
precip chances through the remainder of the week and into the
weekend. The general idea is that upper level ridging will build
into the central CONUS, but we`ll have a series of shortwaves
slide through and bring additional shower and storm chances. At
this point, systems look fairly weak, but there`s quite a bit of
spread on exact timing so generally have off and on 15-30%
chances Wednesday night through the weekend. Otherwise, the
ridging will also lead to some warmer weather with widespread
highs in the 80s expected by Wednesday, though any days with
precip could end up being a bit cooler.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Mostly VFR conditions favored through the period with some
clouds around 5000-7000 ft through the day. That said, there is
some patchy fog in the area this morning, mainly in river
valleys, so could see some move into OMA at times early in the
period. Otherwise, winds will be light and variable early, but
will become southeasterly to southerly under 10 kts through much
of the period. Speeds look to pick up a bit late in the period,
with a few gusts approaching 20 kts at OFK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion