Quinton, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

134
FXUS61 KPHI 251047
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
647 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front is lifting back through the region this morning before
a cold front passes through tonight. The front then lingers off the
coast to end the week and start the weekend. Broad high pressure
will then approach from the west on Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A stationary boundary lifts back north of the region as a warm front
early this morning, bringing another round of showers with embedded
thunderstorms early this morning. Some patchy fog is possible this
morning near and along the warm front as it crawls north.
For Thursday, the area will be settled well within the warm sector
so another day of the seasonably warm and humid airmass is in store.
Morning rain is likely to continue especially over eastern PA and
northern NJ, with more in the way of showers expected elsewhere
through mid-day. As a result, highs are only expected to top out in
the mid to upper 70s to low 80s, as upstream thunderstorm complexes
will cast clouds over the area for much of the day. Perhaps some
clearing is possible, especially over southern Delaware in the
afternoon, where temperatures may top into the mid 80s.
Come Thursday afternoon and evening, attention will focused on a pre-
frontal trough advancing from the west out ahead of the main cold
front. While there is expected to be a brief lull in activity mid-
day, another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop mid-late afternoon and continue into the evening hours.
Forecast soundings suggest up to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE is possible
with 0-6 km bulk shear values up to 40-45 kts. While this type of
environment is more than enough to observe severe weather when skies
are clear; the substantial cloud cover expected much of the day may
hinder/limit this potential. However, if skies do clear more than
anticipated, there is a higher ceiling to the severe weather threat.
The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a MARGINAL risk for
severe weather across our entire area with the main threat being
damaging wind gusts. There is also a conditional tornado risk, with
a low CAPE/moderate shear environment as hodographs are curved in
the low-levels despite the lack of deep instability. Rainfall totals
through Thursday night will average between 1-2 inches with locally
higher amounts possible. Shower and storm coverage should dwindle
overnight Thursday as the cold front sweeps across the area from
west to east by Friday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be building in from the west behind a passing
cold front on Friday. There may be some lingering showers along the
coastal locations however for most of the forecast area, it should
be a dry day. Afternoon highs will remain seasonably warm in the
lower 80s heading into the weekend. Lows Friday night in the mid 50s
to low 60s.
For the weekend, a weak surface trough will be located just to the
south offshore. This will lead to the potential for some light
showers, most concentrated across DelMarVa and southern NJ but heavy
rainfall is not currently anticipated. Showers look to be more
scattered during the daytime on Saturday (20-40% chance) before
becoming a bit more widespread Saturday night (45-65% chance). Highs
in the mid 70s expected with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Heading into the workweek, a broad upper ridge will be located over
the central US with at least one low pressure system well offshore.
NHC is continuing to monitor now Tropical Storm Humberto, along with
a second potential invest area for tropical cyclone development.
Given the temporal range of the forecasts, we dont currently know
much what the impacts or details of the tracks will be. NHC`s
message regarding these two systems remains that "the steering
scenario for the tropical cyclone will likely become more
complicated...due to the interaction with the developing system 94L
to the west" and as a result "there is lower than normal confidence
in this forecast track". Given the significant uncertainty, the
forecast will keep with a persistence forecast with modest 20-40%
chances of rain for Sunday-Tuesday and a general lowering of
temperatures trend through the middle of the week. We`ll continue to
monitor the systems for any potential impacts and adjust the
forecasts as confidence increases in at least some viable
solution.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Thursday...IFR/MVFR conditions in the morning, should gradually
improve to MVFR/VFR likely after 18Z. Periods of rain and
showers expected throughout the morning with a lull mid-day. A
second round of showers and storms expected in the afternoon
from west to east which will cause another period of sub-VFR
conditions. Southerly winds around 7-12 kt with locally higher
gusty winds possible. Moderate confidence.
Thursday night...Sub-VFR conditions are likely to continue with
showers and thunderstorms gradually tapering off overnight.
Southwest winds around 5 kt. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Friday through Monday...Sub-VFR conditions likely, especially early
Friday, before improving by late Friday. A chance of showers (35-
45%) will continue through Monday, presenting an opportunity for
additional periods of sub-VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect through Thursday night. South
winds around 10-15 kt this morning, increasing to around 15-20 kt by
the afternoon with seas of 3-4 feet. A few sporadic gusts up to 25
kt possible late afternoon/evening, but confidence is not high
enough to warrant SCA`s at this time. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected in the morning with an early afternoon lull
before another round of showers and thunderstorms arrive
tonight.
Outlook...
Friday through Monday...No marine headlines currently expected. A
chance of showers each day (around 20% on Friday, 60% on Saturday,
30-40% on Sunday and Monday). A small chance (20% or less) embedded
thunderstorms possible each day.
Rip Currents...
For Thursday...Decided that MODERATE for both NJ/DE waters looked
good for Thursday. The overall swell is still onshore, but decreasing.
Waver periods of around 10 seconds are less than on Wednesday.
Winds will increase notably during the afternoon, which could
locally enhance conditions, but confidence for any higher
category is low (but not zero).
For Friday...chose the MODERATE risk for NJ waters and LOW for
Delaware waters with the Wed evening update. The wind pattern
behind the departing low looks to bring winds mostly offshore
and rather light for much of of the day. Swell continue to lower
as offshore storms move further away from our waters.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AKL/MJL
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...AKL
LONG TERM...AKL/MJL
AVIATION...AKL/MJL
MARINE...AKL/MJL

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion