Preston Park, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

901
FXUS61 KBGM 241038
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
638 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary front will push back northward tonight as a
warm front bringing another round of rain. A cold frontal
boundary then sweeps through Friday with high pressure building
into the region for the weekend and into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A challenging setup this morning as we have seen rain with some
areas clearing out. Locations that clear out will have a
favorable setup for patchy dense fog this morning. A few bands
of higher clouds may slow the fog formation though. Issued a SPS
this morning to account for the fog potential, does not look
widespread enough for an advisory. Clouds and a few spotty
showers due to the stationary front should keep highs in the
70`s today.
The front will then surge northward tonight as a warm front with
enough lift and moisture to develop a fairly widespread round of
showers overnight into the morning hours Thursday. With a weak
LLJ, temperatures will not fall much tonight. Potential does
exist for some slight surface instability to advect in at some
point Thursday adding the possibility of thunder. Right now,
lapse rates look rather poor making it difficult for strong
winds to mix down to the surface. Still, an isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm is possible south and east of Binghamton
given favorable mid-level shear. Model soundings do show a
fairly decent signal for heavy downpours with PW values close to
2 inches and the potential for back building of showers and
thunderstorms. The window for this is brief Thursday afternoon
but present. Highs once again should get into the 70`s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Showers will gradually shift east of our region Thursday night
with the frontal passage. A mid-level trough and northwest flow
should keep clouds and spotty showers in place Friday as well
with only slow clearing Friday night. Cloud cover may have to
be increased for Friday given typical NW flow bias with our NBM
at some point. Temperatures still look to remain mainly in the
60`s and 70`s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The bulk of ensemble data shows high pressure building into the
region with a fairly quiet period with quite a bit of sunshine
and warm weather. However, two tropical disturbances have a high
potential of formation off the east coast by the weekend.
Uncertainity lies with how strong the mid-level heights will be
over the Great Lakes into New England and eastern Canada. Right
now, it appears the heights will be weak enough for both
potential tropical systems to stay well southeast of our
region. A few ensemble members though do bring tropical moisture
into the region at different time intervals in the long term.
Still seasonably warm with 50`s for lows and 70`s for highs.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR restrictions will lift by mid-morning across the region,
with periods of MVFR/VFR ceilings through the afternoon. A few
isolated rain showers with a possible rumble of thunder will be
possible this afternoon, but confidence in location is too low
to mention in the TAFs at this time.
Another round of rain will move into the region this evening
from the SW. Conditions should drop to MVFR/Fuel Alt for a
couple hours in the late evening, then ceilings fall to IFR
across the region after midnight. SYR should see ceilings remain
at Fuel Alt as the overall SSW flow usually keeps ceilings
from falling to IFR.
Outlook...
Thursday...Showers and associated restrictions likely.
Friday through Saturday...Generally VFR, but still a chance for
some showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...JTC

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion