Prairie View, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

426
FXUS63 KGID 232031
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
331 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers (and an isolated non-severe thunderstorm or two) will
  gradually end from north to south this evening through
  Wednesday morning.
- A few sprinkles will be possible east of Highway 281 Wednesday
  afternoon, but the remainder of the forecast remains dry
  (through Sept. 30).
- After a seasonable afternoon Wednesday, modestly above normal
  temperatures (with Highs generally near 80) are expected each
  afternoon Thursday-Tuesday. Normal high temperatures for late
  September are in the lower to mid 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A cloudy and dreary day has been observed across much of the
forecast area today as a weak frontal boundary persists just
south of the local forecast area. Temperatures have ranged from
the upper 60s to lower 70s, about 5-7 degrees below seasonal
norms. So far, most locations have received fairly modest
precipitation amounts during the daytime hours, ranging from a
trace to around a quarter of an inch of precipitation, with more
clouds than periods of rain.
For the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours, expect a
possible uptick in precipitation as the upper level disturbance
across the central Rockies transitions into Kansas. In fact, it
looks like there is already an uptick in activity late this
afternoon across western portions of the area, as supported in
mesoscale model data. Overall, while there is not much
instability to work with, there could still be enough forcing for
a weak thunderstorm or two this evening, and for this reason
did not pull the mention of thunder despite being mainly thunder
free so far this afternoon.
As the upper level wave then pushes east on Wednesday, skies
should clear across the local area - which combine with
northeasterly flow wrapping around the departing disturbance,
could result in a few afternoon sprinkles mainly for areas east
of 281. This will be a low impact event, and most will just
enjoy return of partly/mostly sunny skies and seasonal
temperatures Wednesday afternoon.
Thereafter...a weak upper level ridge will build back across the
area for the majority of the extended period as models keep a
cutoff area of low pressure across southern California. This
should result in seasonably warm temperatures (mainly low 80s)
along with dry weather through the upcoming weekend. The
aforementioned low will eventually make its way into the
southwest and southern plains early next week, but little change
to the weather pattern is anticipated locally as ensembles have
a fairly high confidence dry signal through at least next
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
IFR or MVFR CIGS will continue for the next couple of hours as
widespread -SHRAs continue to impact the region. Expect gradual
improvement in CIGs/VSBYs through the late afternoon hours as
the responsible disturbance shifts south...with VFR conditions
eventually returning during the late night through overnight
hours as skies begin to clear from north to south. Given the way
this system is wrapping up, CIGS/VSBYS will likely remain worse
at KEAR than KGRI for a couple of hours...before eventually SCT
CIGS return aft 24/12Z. Winds will be predominantly out of the
north through the period...diminishing to 5-6KTS overnight...
before again increasing to around 10 KTS during the daytime
hours Wednesday.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion