Potlatch, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

026
FXUS66 KOTX 010554
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1054 PM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unsettled weather pattern this week with breezy
  south/southwest winds and multiple chances for showers.
- Dry with overnight lows falling near freezing Sunday onward.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and wetter pattern persists through the week with temperatures
near seasonal normals and multiple chances for showers. Recurring
breezy southerly winds through the workweek in the afternoon
and evening hours. Drier conditions expected Sunday into early
next week with chilly overnight lows.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today (Tuesday) through Thursday: A deepening low sitting west of
Vancouver Island will continue to direct shortwave disturbances into
the region through the week, bringing breezy winds and intermittent
chances for showers. The first of those shortwaves passed through
last night into early this morning, and the second is on track to
move in tonight. In the meantime, a combination of moisture in the
atmosphere and surface heating will lead to some instability over
southeastern WA and the central ID panhandle this afternoon and
evening, resulting in a 15 percent chance of pop-up showers and
thunderstorms. With CAPE values looking rather unimpressive in the
100-200 J/kg range, any thunderstorms that develop will be weak and
short-lived. Breezy south/southwest winds will persist through this
evening and will subside overnight before picking up again Wednesday
afternoon over the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Valley. Gusts will
range from 20 to 30 mph. For the shortwave moving in tonight, expect
another round of widespread showers with light accumulations similar
to what occurred with the shortwave last night into this morning.
For tomorrow afternoon, chances for isolated thunderstorms will
spread into northeastern WA and north ID. Chances for showers
continue through Thursday, then we shift into a drier northerly flow
regime Friday into early next week as the offshore low moves inland
over northern California and Nevada.
Friday through Tuesday: A ridge of high pressure amplifying in the
Gulf of Alaska will place the Inland Northwest in an area of dry
northerly flow, bringing clear skies and decreased precipitable
water values. Afternoon high temperatures will stay fairly
consistent despite the pattern chance in the mid to upper 60s, but
overnight low temperatures will get noticeably colder without a
blanket of cloud cover and moisture in the atmosphere to insulate
us. Lows in the 30s are expected across much of the region Saturday
night onward. Sheltered northern valleys will likely drop below
freezing. Cooler temperatures will be beneficial for slowing down
regional fires. A shortwave dropping down from the north will graze
across the northeastern portion of the region Saturday bringing
potential for showers to the northeast mountains and north ID, then
dry conditions are forecast through at least mid-next week. /RF
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An occluded front is lifting through E WA and N ID
06-09z bringing bands of convective showers with embedded
thunderstorms. These cells have a history of producing brief
tiny ice pellets and wind gusts to 22 mph. Conditions will clear
out for a few hours behind this front then additional showers
will track southwest to northeast through the region through
tomorrow evening. The heaviest showers will be capable of cigs
near 4k ft AGL for short periods of times.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Moderate to high confidence for showers on and off given a deep
low off the coast and smaller disturbances tracking through the
region. Timing and location of showers through the day and early
evening come with moderate to low confidence and TAF amendments
are likely. of showers VFR conditions through the period. /sb
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        49  66  46  65  43  67 /  60  30  40  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  49  66  47  65  44  67 /  80  50  60  30   0   0
Pullman        47  65  44  62  40  64 /  50  50  60  30  10   0
Lewiston       55  72  53  68  50  69 /  40  40  60  30  20   0
Colville       39  65  36  64  31  67 /  60  50  50  40  10   0
Sandpoint      48  62  46  62  44  65 /  90  70  70  50  10   0
Kellogg        49  63  48  62  47  63 /  80  70  80  50  10   0
Moses Lake     48  68  44  67  39  70 /  20  20  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      50  67  46  65  47  69 /  40  30  20  20   0   0
Omak           48  69  44  67  43  70 /  40  30  20  10   0   0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion