Portville New York Weather Forecast Discussion

227
FXUS61 KBUF 101809
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
209 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The sunny fall day will continue throughout this afternoon as
surface high pressure drifts east off the coast of New England. Low
pressure will cross the Great Lakes Saturday before stalling near
western New York Saturday night through Monday, supporting cloudy
skies and periods of showers. Dry weather will then return mid-week
as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Predominately clear skies with a southerly breeze can be found
across the region this afternoon as surface high pressure exits east
off of the coast of New England. After the chilly start from this
morning, temperatures were slow to rebound, but are not climbing up
into the mid to upper 50s across the higher elevations and low 60s
elsewhere.
As this afternoon presses on into tonight, a well defined mid-level
closed low and associated weak surface low will drop southeast
across the Great Lakes reaching the eastern shores of Lake Huron by
daybreak Saturday. Ahead of this system, expect increasing assent
and moisture resulting in an increase of cloud cover this evening
and overnight from west to east. Additionally with this system,
expect showers to arrive reach far western New York early Saturday
morning before pushing slightly further east across western New York
reaching as far as Rochester Saturday afternoon. The better
locations to receive measurable precipitation Saturday will lie
across the Niagara Frontier and the Southern Tier due to deeper
pockets of moisture and forcing.
With regards to temperatures for tonight, expect a `milder` night
with lows tumbling into the mid to upper 40s. This being said, a few
locations across the higher terrain may drop into the upper 30s to
low 40s, supporting some patchy frost development.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Aforementioned compact mid-level closed low and corresponding
surface low will interact with a developing coastal low Saturday
night, supporting a east to southeasterly wind and advect some
Atlantic moisture into the region. Overall, chances for showers will
continue through Saturday night, with some locations having locally
heavier precipitation totals. This being said, amounts will likely
be variable.
The coastal low will strengthen Sunday while moving off shore from
the Carolinas by Sunday night. This will translate to deep area of
moisture to pivot back into the region along with increased lift
over the eastern Great Lakes and result in more widespread
precipitation across the region Sunday and Sunday night. Monday and
Monday night, the coastal low will gradually depart out, supporting
precipitation to gradually be stripped away from the area. However,
this being said, there may be some lingering light precipitation
across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure and mid-level ridging will build across the
central CONUS Tuesday, supporting mainly dry weather to return. The
next cold front will slide southeast across the Great Lakes Tuesday
night and Wednesday, however by the time the front reaches the
eastern Great Lakes, it will have lost a majority of the moisture,
supporting only a few sparse showers Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Ridging will then fill back in across the region Thursday and
Friday, however cool air will advect across the region, supporting
some lake enhanced showers south and southeast of Lakes Erie and
Ontario. These showers will greatly depend on how much moisture
there is to tap into, at the moment, moisture looks limited which
will greatly impact shower development. Stay tuned...
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail this afternoon as surface high pressure
slides east off of the coast of New England. Meanwhile, a mid-level
low and corresponding weak surface low are making its way across the
Great Lakes, causing the clear skies to give way to increasing high
cirrus.
Overnight, the aforementioned mid-level and surface lows will move
southeast across the Great Lakes, supporting the first of the
showers to move into Western NY during the pre-dawn hours of
Saturday. Clouds will thicken and lower from west to east, but CIGS
will remain VFR through Saturday morning.
Outlook...
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely, mainly across Western NY.
Sunday through Monday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely at times.
Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will drift off the New England coast today,
with increasing southerly winds on the lakes tonight through
Saturday morning. With the southerly wind direction, most of the
wave action will be pushed into Canadian waters. However, Small
Craft Advisory conditions are likely at the northeast end of Lake
Ontario. Winds will diminish and become easterly later Saturday
through Saturday night. The east winds may increase Sunday through
Monday, bringing the potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions
on the central and western portions of Lake Ontario.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
         Saturday for LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ/Hitchcock

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion