Poole Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

435
FXUS63 KGID 102007
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
307 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low chance for showers Tonight (15%) and Saturday night
  (15-20%) across far northern/northwestern portions of the
  area.
- Warm and breezy weather is expected Saturday with highs in the
  70s and 80s and southerly winds gusting 25-35mph.
- Highs in the 80s on Sunday with southerly winds gusting
  25-35mph ahead of a cold frontal passage, and northerly winds
  gusting 20- 30mph behind the front.
- Higher chances for rain return to the area Sunday night
  (15-25%) behind the front, and again Monday night-Tuesday
  (20-30%).
- Cooler weather expected Monday and Tuesday with highs in the
  50s and 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Today/Tonight...
It is a seasonably warm but pleasant day across the area.
Temperatures this afternoon are currently sitting in the mid 70s to
low 80s under partly cloudy skies. Those with outdoor activities
this evening will experience temperatures in the 60s to low 70s and
light winds. A weak upper level disturbance moves into the Plains
tonight, resulting in the development of a few scattered showers.
Models remain consistent in keeping the best chance for rain
north/northwest of the forecast area. Still, can`t completely rule
out a shower (15% PoPs) clipping far northwestern portions of the
area (Lexington to Ord). Lows tonight will be in the low 50s (north)
to low 60s (south).
Saturday and Sunday...
Ridging aloft will move east into the Midwest on Saturday, as a
troughing deepens over the west coast, placing the area under
southwesterly flow. At the surface southerly flow strengthens across
the area resulting in a warm and breezy day. Highs on Saturday will
range from the mid 70s across northeastern portions of the area
where cloud coverage is more robust, to the mid 80s across
southwestern portions of the area. Southeasterly winds increase
during the day, gusting 25-35mph throughout the afternoon. Similar
to tonight/Friday, a weak disturbance moves into the plains Saturday
night, bringing a low chance (15-20%) for scattered showers to far
northern portions of the area. Winds remain elevated overnight,
gusting 20-30mph, with lows only falling to the mid-upper 60s.
Southerly flow increases ahead of an approaching shortwave trough on
Sunday, resulting in the warmest day of the forecast period. Highs
will soar into the 80s, around 15-20 degrees above their
climatological normals. A cold front will push its way into the area
Sunday afternoon. Ahead of the front, southerly winds gusting 25-
35mph are expected, but winds become light along the front. There
remains some uncertainty in model guidance on the exact timing of
the frontal passage, but western portions of the area will see the
frontal passage during the afternoon. Behind the frontal passage,
winds become breezy and northerly, gusting 20-30mph. Drier air is
also expected behind the front as relative humidity values fall
below 30%. The combination of breezy winds and lower relative
humidity values may result in elevated fire weather concerns for
western portions of the area.
Rain chances (15-25%) return behind the cold frontal passage Sunday
night. Storms do not look to be very widespread along the front but
some isolated-scattered development is possible. Rain with these
storms looks to be fairly light (below 0.25").
Monday and Tuesday...
Noticeably cooler weather is expected behind the front, which will
stall out southeast of the area on Monday. Highs on Monday will be
in the low to mid 60s, around 20-25 degrees cooler than on Sunday! A
few showers are possible on Monday southeast of the Tri-Cities,
closest to the front. Another weak disturbance moves into the area
Monday night-Tuesday, bringing more widespread chances (20-30%) for
rain. Tuesday looks to be the coolest day of the forecast, with
highs in the upper 50s-low 60s.
Wednesday Onwards....
Ridging builds/strengthens over the area during the middle of next
week. There remains some spread in model guidance for how strong
this ridging will be and how long it persists, but above normal
temperatures are expected with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
Given the spread in model guidance, PoPs are low (below 15%) and
scattered through the end of the forecast period. Warm and active
weather is forecast to continue past the forecast period, with the
CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts favoring above normal temperatures
and above normal precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Northeasterly winds
will shift to the east this afternoon, and to the southeast
overnight. Winds are light this evening, but gradually increase
during the early morning hours on Saturday. After sunrise on
Saturday, breezy winds are expected with sustained winds of
10-15kts and gusts of 20-25kts. High level clouds will move into
the area this evening, becoming BKN-OVC overnight around 150.
Skies begin to clear near the end of the TAF period.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion