Pitkin, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

806
FXUS64 KLCH 011115
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
615 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure aloft will keep a dry air mass in place through
  through Thursday morning.
- A slight increase in moisture to go along with a developing
  upper level disturbance will bring a periodic low end chances
  for rain by Thursday afternoon into this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Slack ridge of surface high pressure continues remain in place with
slightly stronger ridging in the mid levels as noted by our 01st/00Z
sounding. That said, RH has increased in the upper levels associated
with upper level trough to shift east along the Florida Panhandle
this afternoon. A dry forecast is in store this afternoon with
mostly sunny skies. Today will also be the warmest in the forecast
period as highs top out around the low 90`s. Thursday troughing
along the western Great Lakes deepens south along the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Moisture transport, however will remain mostly
shore parallel out of the east, but will help intrude Gulf moisture
into the area to help buffer minimum afternoon RH toward 40-55%. As
per recent forecast package, isolated showers and storms are
possible, and those slim chances are best favored near the coast
while interior locations are likely to be mixed with drier air from
the north. A similar setup is expected, keeping isolated chances
generally south of the I-10 corridor while highs drop back into the
upper 80`s for most. Upper level troughing across the area gains
further positive tilt east of the Mississippi which increases
confidence most of our forecast area will be hard pressed to see
much precipitation through Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
The long range forecast will have us in the upper 80 to low 90`s
Saturday with chances of rain still hugging the coast and remaining
best offshore. That said, there is evidence of a weak coastal trough
to develop along the western Gulf. Evolution of this feature may
help introduce more moisture Sunday as surface winds become onshore
giving us that much needed low level instability to produce more
efficient rainfall. It`s worth cautioning the uncertainty here as
this troughing remains weak and potentially liable to be absorbed
inland across Latin America / Mexico. However, evidence suggests a
baroclinic zone setting up regionally, even if offshore, as a high
pressure cell deepening out of Ontario exhibits strong ridging into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. For now scattered chances have been
added to the forecast Sunday and Monday with temps holding toward
the upper 80`s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Shallow ground fog will be possible this morning, however
generally VFR conditions are anticipated during the period. Winds
will be light and north to northeast.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Light to occasionally modest offshore flow and lower seas will
remain through Thursday morning. Hereafter, ridging down from the
Mid-Atlantic area with build toward the Gulf Coast, strengthening an
easterly flow. Shower activity will increase toward the end of the
week with an upper level disturbance developing over the northern
Gulf. Meanwhile winds/seas will build through Friday and remain
elevated through the weekend, before easing and abating early next
week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A dry air mass will remain in place with no significant chance for
rainfall through tomorrow morning. Afternoon minimum relative
humidity values are expected to be between 30 and 45 percent today.
Surface winds will remain from mainly the north and northeast at
less than 10 knots. These winds will increase out of the ENE 8-13
knots Thursday and Friday with occasional higher gusts. A
disturbance offshore will help filter more moisture into the area
into the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  68  90  64 /   0   0  20  10
LCH  91  70  90  69 /   0   0  30  20
LFT  91  71  89  68 /   0   0  30  10
BPT  91  68  90  70 /   0   0  10  20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion