Pine Neck New York Weather Forecast Discussion

559
FXUS61 KOKX 091937
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
337 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to build in today and then will remain
over the area into the start of the weekend. Low pressure will
deepen and track north towards the region on Sunday. The low will
then meander near the region on Monday, before heading out to sea
by the middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Strong high pressure continues to build into the area from the
northwest tonight, eventually moving directly overhead late tonight
and into Friday morning. The gusty N wind will diminish this evening
as the boundary layer decouples. Clear skies and diminishing winds
will allow for some radiational cooling, especially for inland areas
away from the immediate coastline. CAA from the northerly flow
earlier in the day, a drier airmass, and a decoupled boundary layer
will allow for surface temperatures to drop significantly bringing
the potential for the first freeze of the season.
Inland areas to the north are expected to fall into the lower 30s,
possibly even some upper 20s. Freeze Warnings continue for these
inland areas. Closer to the coast, middle to upper 30s are possible,
with the immediate coastline having low temperatures into the low to
middle 40s, courtesy of ocean temperatures remaining in the 60s. Any
cooler spots not along the immediate coastline may develop some
frost tonight, with Frost Advisory headlines issued for portions of
southern coastal Connecticut and interior portions of NE NJ. There
is also a chance for some frost across the LI Pine Barrens with
temperatures around 32 degrees, but not enough of the zone for any
headline.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure then remains in control of the area Friday and
Saturday. Generally clear conditions Friday with a gradually
shifting wind out of the southeast will allow for temperatures to
climb into the lower 60s, still about 5 degrees below average. The
SE component to the wind as the high pressure center shifts east of
the area will allow lower level moisture to advect into the area and
dew points to increase into the low 40s. Given the increase in low
level moisture and potentially some cloud cover moving in Friday
night, low temperatures on Friday night will be warmer than Thursday
night. Lows Friday night will be in the 40s and 50s with warmer
spots near the NYC metro and along the immediate coast.
High pressure remains just north of the area on Saturday with a
developing coastal low approaching the area from the south. This
will allow for increased cloud cover and a gradually increasing SE/E
flow through the day. Highs Saturday will be in the middle to upper
60s to near 70. Some showers may approach the area from the south
toward late afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main focus continues to be on the storm for Sun into early next
week, with significant cstl impacts possible.
The models continue to support low pres deepening and tracking nwd
towards the region on Sun, while high pres remains over ern Canada.
Although there are some timing, track, and strength challenges, this
pattern lends confidence to the wind field due to the relative
positions of the high and low. As a result, issued high wind and
cstl flood watches for the area.
The strongest winds are still expected to be across srn/ern portions
of the cwa and this is where the watch has been issued. Other areas
will still be windy, but likely advy lvls or lower attm. If the
storm track trends wwd, this would expand the wind field wwd as
well, but may limit peak gusts if the low ends up weaker. Will
continue to fcst a max gust to around 60 mph during the peak of the
storm based on 50kt bl winds in the GFS. This signal has been
persistent.
Did make some changes to the NBM, blending in the higher 06Z CONSALL
for winds Sat ngt thru Mon over land, and manually increasing gusts
there abv the NBM as well.
The rain develops from S to N on Sun. The NAM however is completely
dry until eve. Stuck with the NBM which is closer to the faster GFS
as it is a bit too far out to have confidence in the slower NAM.
Right now the window for the heaviest rain looks to be Sun aftn and
eve, although this could change due to the eventual track, timing,
and intensity of the sys.
It remains windy on Mon, but the gradient relaxes so peak gusts are
not expected to be as high. Still gusts around 40 mph very possible.
If the low gets close enough, lighter winds could be possible with
the strongest flow generally on the periphery of an occluded low.
The GFS is starting to suggest this possibility, but the ECMWF has
come in solidly S, keeping the area in a strong E/NE flow.
The storm weakens and pulls away on Tue, so lessening rain chances
and decreasing winds, although probably still breezy at the coasts.
No changes to the NBM Wed and Thu.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure settles across the area through the period.
N winds diminish slightly over the next couple of hours, and then
become N-NNE less than 10 kt towards and just after sunset. Winds
diminish a bit more overnight, closer to 5 kt or less at outlying
terminals. Winds will then become E towards late morning at many
terminals, then mainly SE Friday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday afternoon through Saturday: VFR.
Saturday night: Chance of rain. NE winds G20kt late.
Sunday and Monday: Rain likely. MVFR cond expected, IFR cond
possible in bands of heavier rain. NE winds G40kt at KISP, G30-35kt
at the NYC metro/CT terminals, G25-30kt at KSWF.
Tuesday: Sub VFR to start with a chance of showers, possibly
improving to VFR during the afternoon. N to NNE winds sustained at
10-15 kt, G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas continue to subside tonight as high pressure moves
overhead. Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Saturday
afternoon.
Winds increase Sat ngt, particularly on the ocean, ahead of
developing low pres. A gale watch has been issued for the ocean.
Winds increase to possibly storm force for Sun and Sun ngt. A storm
watch has been issued for all waters except the harbor, where a gale
watch was issued. All areas should be close to gale on Mon. Seas
likely to peak around 20ft on the ocean with the sys. Winds and seas
subside further Mon ngt and Tue as the low weakens and begins to
track away from the region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rain is expected Sunday into Monday. Average amounts of 1
to 2 inches are possible. However, no significant hydrologic impacts
are expected with this being a long duration rainfall and recent dry
conditions.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Total water levels are expected to approach and possibly just
meet minor coastal flood benchmarks Friday morning`s high tide
cycle for the Nassau County south shore bays and S Fairfield.
Impacts should be minimal.
The potential remains for widespread moderate to locally major
coastal flooding and beach erosion Sunday and Monday, via the combo
of high astronomical tides and surge generated by strong NE flow.
Breaking waves around 10 ft possible based on 20+ ft seas offshore.
Although exact impacts will be dependent on the eventual track and
intensity of a deep low tracking toward the region, confidence in
the event was high enough to warrant the issuance of a watch for the
entire coast.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     CTZ005>008.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday
     afternoon for CTZ009>012.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     CTZ010>012.
NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ067>070.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday
     afternoon for NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for NYZ075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NJZ002.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday
     afternoon for NJZ006-106-108.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NJZ004-103.
MARINE...Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
     ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350-353-355.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ338.
     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night
     for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS okx Office Area Forecast Discussion