Pine Beach, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

976
FXUS61 KPHI 172059
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
459 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low located over the mouth of the Chesapeake continues
to weaken before tracking slowly northeastward off the coast by
Thursday. A cold front will pass across the area on Friday,
followed by strong high pressure which will be in control
through the weekend and into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak low pressure continues to fill as it slowly moves northeast
along the VA/MD shore areas. It will continue moving out to sea
tonight while opening up to a disorganized sfc wave. The
east/northeast flow ahead of the low has brought some bands of
showers and isolated thunder to southern NJ/Delmarva today. These
rains are now spilling into eastern PA and up into north/central NJ.
The rains have been dropping decent totals as they move thru, but
they also have a moderate motion as well, so no excessive totals
have been noted.
The rains will continue into the evening, but then diminish as the
upper dynamics wane and the sfc winds become more North. Drier air
will arrive late, but with the weak flow, fog may develop across the
region too. Confidence in fog development is low, but added some to
the grids since low level moisture is still rather high now that the
rains have arrived. Lows tonight will remain mild with low 60s
fairly common.
On Thursday, the weakening wave/low will be well offshore during the
morning but the lack of stronger winds at the sfc (or aloft)combined
with low level moisture will result in only slow improvement. By
afternoon, we are forecasting better conditions after a period of
mixing with the returning sunshine by late morning. The coastal
areas will be the last to improve however. After the sunshine
returns, we are expecting temps to climb up to above normal with
upper 70s across the coastal areas and Delmarva and low/mid 80s
inland across SE PA and north NJ. Winds will be light from the N or
NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clear skies and benign weather will continue into Thursday
night where low temperatures are expected to fall into the mid
50s to low 60s.
Friday looks to be a pretty nice day overall with a brief
return of summer-like temperatures. Highs are expected to top
out in the low to mid 80s across the entire region, outside of
the higher terrain which will be in the upper 70s. The is one
feature to note though, which is a cold front that will approach
the area from the north as the day progresses. Depending on
forward progression of the front, areas north and west may end
up a few degrees cooler than currently forecast. No
precipitation is expected though as the atmospheric column lacks
any moisture, so skies are anticipated to be mostly sunny on
Friday. Behind the front though, there will be a strong push of
cold air advection and drier air that will pour into the region
by Friday night. This will lead to lows bottoming out in the 50s
for most, 40s across the higher terrain and 60s near the coast.
Saturday will be clear and dry as high pressure begins to build
in. Highs mainly in the low-mid 70s expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period for the rest of the weekend and into early
next week will largely be dominated by strong high pressure
originating from Canada. The center of this high will shift
southeast into the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday, with ridging
still extending west into the Mid-Atlantic into the beginning of
next week. This will yield a very nice weekend overall, with
mostly clear skies and light onshore flow.
By Monday and Tuesday, will begin to see southwesterly flow
develop aloft as a deepening trough moves into the High Plains.
While the area will still be under the influence of surface high
pressure, we will begin to see a gradual warming trend and the
return of above normal temperatures by the middle of the week.
Will have to monitor a stalled boundary near the Carolina coast
on Tuesday night and Wednesday, which may result in a few
isolated showers. However, the potential of this occurrence is
low thanks to strong ridging remaining over much of the Mid-
Atlantic.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Remainder of Today...IFR in showers which maybe locally heavy.
low- end MVFR CIGs and better vsbys between showers, Northeast
winds 10 to 20 kts but lighter KRDG/KABE. Low/medium confid.
Tonight... Low overcast and scattered showers expected early then
lesser chances for showers late. Fog formation possible but not
certain. Fog is more likely KMIV/KACY where more rain fell Wed.
Probably a mostly low-end MVFR conditions with IFR in any showers.
KRDG/KABE may return to VFR before some MVFR fog later on. Northeast
winds around 10 to 15 kts decreasing by dusk. Low confid overall.
Thursday... There may be some lower clouds and vsby restricting fog
early, but VFR should return to most areas after 13Z/14Z as dryer
air mixes down. VFR will follow for the rest of the morning and into
the afternoon, North winds around 5 knots becoming Northwest at 5 to
10 knots by noon. Medium confid.
Outlook...
Thursday night through Monday...VFR. No significant weather
expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds continue to relax across the Southern waters with the SCA
flags that were up earlier for Delaware Bay having expired. The SCA
flags for the ocean continue as seas remain elevated and winds
continue to gust over 25 kts at times. As the winds diminish
tonight, the seas will decrease as well. We won`t change the
Midnight expiration time at this time. Scattered showers will
continue into the early overnight but then become widely scattered
after dawn Thursday. Fog is possible later tonight with the lowering
winds, we`ll include that in the Marine grids/fcst. Fair weather and
sub-SCA Thursday with light N or NW winds expected.
Outlook...
Thursday night through Friday night...No marine headlines
expected. Fair weather.
Saturday...SCA conditions possible mainly due to wind gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas around 3-4 feet.
Saturday night through Sunday...No marine headlines expected.
Fair weather.
Sunday night through Monday...SCA conditions possible as seas
look to increase to around 5 feet.
Rip Currents...
HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM THIS
EVENING.
For Thursday, northerly winds around 10 mph should become east
and then southeast later in the day. Breaking waves of 2-3 feet
along with an easterly swell around 8 seconds are forecast.
Since the swell component is more perpendicular to the coast
despite lowering wave heights and decreasing wind, maintained a
MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for
all beaches.
For Friday, a more southerly wind near 10 mph is forecast to
develop with an east-southeast swell around 8 seconds. Breaking
waves in the surf zone are forecast to be a little lower, and
therefore went with a LOW risk for the development of dangerous
rip currents at all beaches.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The Coastal Flood Advisory for Sussex County, DE and Ocean
County, NJ has been cancelled. While some minor tidal flooding
could still occur through this evening mainly in the back bays,
it looks localized especially as the earlier low tide was much
lower.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AKL/DeSilva
NEAR TERM...OHara
SHORT TERM...AKL/DeSilva
LONG TERM...AKL/DeSilva
AVIATION...AKL/OHara
MARINE...AKL/Gorse/OHara
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI

NWS phi Office Area Forecast Discussion