Pilot Knob, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

078
FXUS61 KALY 261739
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
139 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will bring a few showers to the
southern Adirondacks tonight, otherwise mainly dry conditions
are expected. Low pressure passing south of the region could
bring a few showers Saturday night to areas mainly south and
east of Albany. Otherwise, mainly dry weather will dominate
through next week as high pressure remains in control.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:
- Low chance of rain showers (20-30%) Saturday night/early
  Sunday mainly south/east of Albany, otherwise mainly dry
  conditions through late next week.
- Above normal temperatures through Tuesday, trending to below
  normal by mid/late next week.
As of 135 PM EDT, isolated/scattered showers and sprinkles are
occurring mainly north of I-90 in association passing upper
level trough/cold pool. Cloud/shower coverage should decrease
from west to east later this afternoon as subsidence increases
in the wake of the trough. Otherwise, a bit breezy at times with
temps ranging from the lower/mid 70s within the Hudson Valley
except around 80 across the mid Hudson Valley, with mid 60s to
around 70 across higher terrain.
Clear to partly cloudy skies tonight, although a few showers may
persist across the SW Adirondacks as a secondary cold front
approaches from the northwest. Patchy fog will develop after
midnight, especially across portions of the upper and mid Hudson
Valley regions. Lows mainly in the 50s, with some 40s possible
across portions of the southern Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley.
Mainly dry for Saturday, although high/mid level clouds will
increase in the afternoon. A wave of low pressure tracking
south/east of the region may allow for some showers to reach
portions of the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT
Saturday night. Will have to watch northern extent of shower
coverage, as forcing from upper level jet max translating into
Quebec and attendant right entrance region tracks across the
region, possibly allowing showers to expand slightly farther
north/west than current NBM PoPs suggest. Otherwise, high temps
Saturday mainly in the 70s with Saturday night lows in the 50s.
Fair weather is then expected Sunday through most of next week.
Temps will likely remain above normal through at least Tuesday,
with highs 75-80 in valleys and upper 60s/lower 70s across
higher elevations. In fact, Sunday high temps may reach the
lower 80s within much of the Hudson River Valley as latest NBM
probs for MaxT > 80 are 80-90%+. Overnight lows through Tuesday
morning in the 40s and 50s. A cold front looks to drop southward
late Tuesday into Wednesday. Moisture looks limited, so
expecting just a wind shift at this time followed by cooler
temperatures. Highs Wednesday-Friday mainly in the 60s in
valleys and 50s across higher terrain, with overnight lows
mainly in the 30s to lower 40s, though some 20s will be possible
across the southern Adirondacks/southern VT.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18z Saturday...Mainly dry conditions expected except for a
few showers in vicinity of KGFL this afternoon associated with a
weak disturbance. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail into this
evening. With recent rainfall and moist ground, fog will become
likely as skies clear tonight. Will mention IFR/LIFR developing at
KALB/KGFL/KPSF between 07z-08z. Not as much rain fell at KPOU, so
confidence is lower in IFR. Will mention MVFR vsby for now. Fog
should dissipate around 13z-14z Friday, with VFR conditions
returning. Winds will be west-northwest around 5-10 kt with
occasional gusts to 15 kt at KALB/KPSF through the daylight hours.
Wind will become variable less than 5 kt tonight into Friday
morning.
Outlook...
Saturday Night-Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...JPV

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion