Perryville, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

983
FXUS63 KPAH 212333
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
633 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Transition to a wetter and more active pattern is underway. Isolated
  to widely scattered storms this afternoon and evening, then
  rain chances ramp up and remain higher through early to mid
  week.
- A pleasant cool down is expected with this pattern. Highs dip
  back down into the 70s by mid week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
More isolated to widely scattered storms are possible this afternoon
and evening as we continue to transition to a wetter and more active
pattern. PoPs ramp up more overnight tonight as an upper level short
wave approaches from the west. This short wave moves through on
Monday making for a fairly wet day. Not confident in highs for
Monday as it looks to be pretty cloudy and rainy which could keep
highs lower than forecast.
Rain chances continue to be high through early to mid week. Chances
are higher that we could see 2-3" of rainfall total with some
locally higher amounts possible. Mid to late week temperatures come
down into the 70s for a pleasant cool down. A large, possibly closed
low aloft moves through Wednesday night into Thursday then opens
into an open wave by Friday. This could cause some lingering PoPs
through Friday afternoon then drying out over the weekend with
ridging filling in behind it. Temperatures come back up to around
seasonal for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
While the region is currently seeing a lull in precipitation,
expecting numerous to widespread showers to develop after 04-06z,
continuing through much of the morning hours. Instability looks
too low to include thunder through this period, but will ramp
up in the afternoon, so introduced PROB30 TSRA groups through
24z.
Cigs will begin VFR then lower towards or under MVFR
restrictions, particularly in the 12-18z window. Vsbys should
stay VFR the great majority of the forecast period, except under
brief heavier rainfall. Winds will be light from the S-SSW
overnight around 3-6, increasing to 8-12 kts with gusts of 15-20
kts Monday afternoon.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...DWS

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion