Pequot Lakes, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

919
FXUS63 KDLH 021932
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
232 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well above normal temperatures will persist into the weekend
  with some record high temperatures and record warm low
  temperatures possible, particularly on Friday and Saturday.
- Scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms expected through
  this evening, with the best coverage in the Arrowhead. Severe
  weather is not expected.
- Potential for showers and storms in north-central Minnesota
  Saturday evening into Sunday. A few strong to severe storms
  with gusty winds and some hail cannot be ruled out.
- Gusty winds this weekend, with strong wind gusts to 45 mph
  expected Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Today - Tonight:
Expect the trend for the remainder of the afternoon and evening
to be widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing along and just ahead of a cold front as it moves
east through the Northland with coverage decreasing overnight as
precipitation exits east of northwest Wisconsin and western
Lake Superior. Effective bulk shear of 20-30 kt and MLCAPE
values around 200-800 J/kg should be marginal enough to prevent
any severe thunderstorms today. Can`t rule out some localized
wind gusts to around 40 mph and very small hail with any storms
that develop in north-central Minnesota and the Arrowhead this
afternoon and early evening given DCAPE values of 700-1000 J/kg
and steeper low-level lapse rates, but this threat should wane
near and shortly after sunset. While not every location will see
rain, some spots could pick up a quick 0.25-0.5" in brief,
heavy downpours with the showers and thunderstorms given above-
normal PWAT values for early October of 1-1.25".
Otherwise, expect another seasonally warm day today with widespread
high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s, with some pockets of mid-
80s possible in the Brainerd Lakes and northwest Wisconsin by late
afternoon alongside breezy south to southwest winds ahead of the
weak cold front. Very mild low temperatures return tonight in the
50s to around 60F.
Friday - This Weekend:
The most notable weather for Friday into this weekend will be
summer-like heat and increasingly gusty winds as the Northland
gets nestled between a slowly departing broad ridge axis to our
east and an approaching, negatively tilted trough to our west.
High temperatures are forecast to be widespread in the low to
upper 80s for most of the Northland on Friday and Saturday with
lows largely in the 60s. The exceptions to this will be the
immediate head of Lake Superior on Friday given onshore flow
that day and the North Shore/tip of the Arrowhead Friday and
Saturday where highs should be in the 70s. For comparison,
normal highs and lows in early October are upper 50s to low 60s
and mid 30s to low 40s, respectively. In fact, several record
daily warm highs and lows are possible for both Friday and
Saturday (see the Climate Section below for details).
Temperatures will be less hot for Sunday with the cold front
passage, but still warm for early October in the 70s to low 80s.
Beach goers at Minnesota and Wisconsin Point beaches on Friday
trying to escape the heat should be mindful if swimming in the
water as the onshore northeast winds around 10-15 mph could
create waves in excess of 2 feet and rip currents.
The aforementioned negatively tilted trough moving into the Central
and Northern Plains Saturday night will shift into western and far
north-central Minnesota on Sunday morning and afternoon. In response
to this trough, a deepening surface low will be sliding across the
eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota Saturday night into
Sunday, with the Northland largely remaining in the warm sector of
this system until an attendant cold front sweeps through Sunday
afternoon and evening. A few impactful weather concerns are likely
as a result of this system: very strong winds, potentially near-
critical fire weather, and some strong thunderstorm potential.
A tight pressure gradient with this system will kick off increasing
south to southwesterly winds on Saturday into early Sunday, with
winds then veering westerly and then northwesterly behind the cold
front Sunday afternoon and evening. Frequent gusts of 30 to 40 mph
can be expected during the latter half of Saturday into Saturday
night, with some gusts even pushing up to 40-50 mph Sunday morning
and afternoon. Therefore, we will need continue to monitor trends as
to whether or not a Wind Advisory may be needed on Sunday. PWATs
will be above average (1-1.3") for the weekend, which should
mitigate afternoon RH from dipping too low, though could still dip
down into the 30-40% range in spots. Deeper mixing in the low levels
combined with hot temperatures and the very gusty winds may lead to
near-critical fire weather conditions. Given the strong winds, use
extreme caution if burning outdoors Friday into this weekend.
As for precipitation, the track of the low pressure system looks to
keep most of the rainfall northwest of the Northland, with any
shower and thunderstorm potential relegated to north-central
Minnesota Saturday evening and night, and northern Minnesota--mainly
along and north of the Iron Range--behind the cold front on Sunday.
A few strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts and hail
cannot be ruled out Saturday evening and night given strong
0-6km bulk shear values of 50-65 kt and steeper mid- and low-
level lapse rates, but there remains some question as to if this
will overlap with adequate enough instability.
Cooling off Next Week:
Behind Sunday`s cold front, expect a return to largely drier and
much cooler conditions for much of next week, with highs generally
in the 50s to 60s and nightly lows in the 30s to around 40F for at
least Monday night through Wednesday night. May even see some
frost/freeze potential return in this timeframe, particularly on
Tuesday night where lows could dip below freezing on a more
widespread basis depending on the timing of another cold front
on Tuesday. There remains some low-end rain shower potential
with the cold front on Tuesday, but chances are only 20-30%. The
lack of meaningful rainfall signals into early next week
combined with ongoing drier conditions will likely keep the
elevated fire weather concerns going. Ensemble models and mid-
range deterministic guidance diverge regarding the overall
pattern for the second half of next week, but there is at least
some potential for another cold front to pass through next
Friday or Saturday and bring additional precipitation chances.
Confidence in the precipitation forecast late next week remains
low, however.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening,
though a few widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are expected for HIB to possible DLH and in the Minnesota
Arrowhead region this afternoon and evening, with locally heavy
downpours under any storms at times. Confidence in
thunderstorms directly affecting a terminal were covered with
PROB30 groups due to confidence in prevailing thunderstorm
coverage and location was too low. Expect some IFR to LIFR fog,
locally dense, to occur at locations that see rain today. The
best potential is at HIB. Breezy southerly winds weaken and
become light and variable tonight before turning southeasterly
on Friday.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Expect hazardous conditions to develop on Lake Superior this
weekend. Winds and gusts largely remain below 20 kt today into
early Friday. However, onshore northeast winds of 10-15 kt and
gusts to around 20 kt at the head of the lake could kick up
waves to 2-3 ft there before winds and waves drop off by mid
evening. A prolonged period of strengthening south to southwest
winds develop for Saturday and most of Sunday. Gale-force wind
gusts to 35 kt on a more isolated basis may develop Saturday
evening and night, with more widespread 30-40 kt gusts and
dangerous waves for Sunday. A cold front will be moving through
late Sunday afternoon and evening that will veer winds
westerly, and gusts and waves will gradually relax below small
craft advisory levels by early Monday.
Outside of the strong wind gusts this weekend, some isolated
thunderstorms with localized gusts to 30 kt and small hail are
possible this evening, mainly along the North Shore into Twin
Ports. Patchy dense fog with visibilities below 1 NM is also
possible tonight.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
The very warm to hot period this weekend is creating a forecast
of some likely-to-be broken record high and warm low
temperatures in the Northland. Below are the days which have the
highest chances of multiple stations tying or breaking these
temperature records. These forecast temperatures are about 20
degrees F (highs) and about 25 degrees (warm lows) above normal
for early October.
Record High Temperatures:
October 3: Forecast Current Records
KDLH:      80       82/2023
KINL:      82       84/2023
KBRD:      86       84/2023
KHIB:      81       83/1953
October 4:
KDLH:      84       83/1922
KINL:      83       82/2011
KBRD:      88       82/2011
KHIB:      83       78/2011
Record Warm Low Temperatures:
October 4: Forecast Current Records
KDLH:      58       58/1914
KINL:      64       60/1914
KBRD:      68       60/1914
KHIB:      59       54/1969
KASX:      59       59/1931
October 5:
KASX:      56       56/1975
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein
CLIMATE...Wolfe/Rothstein

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion