Paxson, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

058
FXAK69 PAFG 302255
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
255 PM AKDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A much more active pattern is on the way as we are expecting a
series of Bering Sea lows to bring rain and wind to the coast with
rain and snow across Interior parts of Alaska. The first front is
moving through this afternoon/evening with wind gusts of 40 to 50
mph from the Seward Peninsula south and periods of rain. Rain
showers and breezy conditions continue tomorrow. This rain moves
into the Interior tomorrow with mixed rain and snow and only light
accumulations of around 1 to 2 inches or less expected. Most snow
accumulations will be in the Northern/Western Interior as well as
Interior terrain above 1000 feet while the valleys see less.
Active weather will continue into this weekend with a warming
trend as highs approach the mid 40s and even 50s.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Active weather returns with rain and snow in the Interior
  beginning tomorrow midday, then continuing through the weekend.
- Snow is most likely in Isabel Pass south of Trims Camp and the
  Steese Highway Summits Wednesday afternoon through Friday night.
Snow Accumulations Wednesday afternoon through Friday:
- 3 to 6 inches in Isabel Pass south of Trims Camp and 4 to 9
   inches on the Steese Highway Summits.
- 1 to 2 inches on the Dalton Highway Summits and an inch or less
   for most other spots.
- Rain is likely in the valleys with some snow Wednesday night
  into Thursday morning. Friday looks to be a mess with mixed rain
  and snow across most of the Interior, transitioning to mostly
  rain outside of the highway summits on Saturday.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- It will be a mess with periods of rain, snow and wind across the
  Coast and Interior.
- A front today brings rain and wind along the coast with snow
  inland tonight and tomorrow. Another wave of mixed rain and snow
  arrives Thursday afternoon and continues through Friday, then a
  stronger front with warm air and more rain arrives Friday
  afternoon/evening.
- The snow will mostly reside inland from the coast from the
  Seward Peninsula north and east through Friday with mostly rain
  everywhere on Saturday.
Snowfall totals:
- 1 to 2 inches Wednesday afternoon from the Nulato Hills north.
- An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow in those spots Thursday
   afternoon through Friday afternoon.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- The Western and Central Brooks Range will be active with rounds
  of snow and rain. The first round of snow arrives tomorrow with
  the second being Thursday into Friday. Saturday will bring
  another round of rain/snow with.
- Along the Slope and Coast, expect areas of light snow, flurries
  and fog to persist with only minor snow accumulations.
- Temperatures will in the low to mid 30s along the coast with 20s
  to near 30 on the north side of the Brooks Range and 30s to near
  40 for the south side of the Brooks Range.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A much more active pattern with a ridge over the N Pacific
bringing southwest to westerly flow across the state through the
weekend and into next week. There will be a firehose of
precipitation through this weekend as numerous fronts bring
rounds of rain and snow across Northern Alaska. Along with these
fronts will be gusty winds on the coast, especially this afternoon
with gusts up to 50 mph at times. On Thursday, additional wind
gusts from the west will be around 30 to 50 mph south of the
Seward Peninsula. Winds will calm down on the coast Thursday night
but a slight breeze prevails through the weekend. Rain will
continue though as a strong front this weekend brings upwards of 1
inch of rain in Western Alaska Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures
will warm up as this front passes through with some spots reaching
the low 50s, especially in SW AK and potentially the southern
Interior.
This overall pattern of west-southwest flow bringing rounds of
precipitation will persist into next week as there looks to be no
significant breaks.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a bit of concern heading into this weekend and next week.
Numerous rounds of rain and snow will move through Northern Alaska
almost on a daily basis beginning tomorrow. Through early next
week, there may be a widespread 1 to 3 inches of liquid
precipitation across the area. Some of this will fall as snow,
especially in the higher terrain, but some of it may melt as snow
levels increase to nearly 5000ft in the Interior. Next week there
is a lot of uncertainty with temperatures but there is a chance
that highs can be in the upper 40s or low 50s in the Interior,
and this would melt a lot of the already accumulated snow in the
higher terrain. If that happens, it would only add to the rain
water entering the river system. At the very least, we should
expect gravel bars to be covered but as of now, we are not
anticipating any flooding.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The active pattern with troughing over the Bering and West Coast
will continue into next week. It is almost impossible to determine
where there will be snow versus rain, but expect a slough of
precipitation for much of Northern Alaska through at least the
middle of next week. There is no real end in sight, as some
guidance shows low after low in the Bering Sea through the middle
of October. As of now, there is no significant threat for any
impactful coastal flooding through the middle of next week as
water levels look to remain around 1 to 3 feet above normal.
However, there are signs that a strong low may enter the Bering
Sea late next week and move towards Western Alaska towards the end
of next week and into the weekend. At this time, this is over 7
days out and will change, but it is on our radar and something
that needs monitoring.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Water levels look to be around 1 to 4 feet above the normal high
tide line by the end of the week and through the weekend. The
highest water levels, potentially up to 4 feet above the normal
high tide line, will be in Eastern Norton Sound with lower levels
around 1 to 2 feet elsewhere.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-805-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807>810-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-850-851-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ858.
&&
$$
Bianco

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion