Palermo, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

153
FXUS63 KBIS 011951
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
251 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures around 10 to 20 degrees above normal this
  afternoon and Thursday.
- Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible this
  weekend, especially in south central and eastern North Dakota.
- Cooler temperatures return Saturday with temperatures dipping
  slightly below normal early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A cold front continues to progress across western North Dakota
bringing in a wind shift from southerly winds to westerly winds.
There are some showers along the front west of Dickinson moving
east, but weak instability and high clouds bases are likely
limiting the extent of showers, as much of the rain is
evaporating before reaching the ground. Drier air will follow
behind the front leading to a decrease in dewpoints. Thus,
allowing overnight low temperatures to drop back into the 50s
across the state, as opposed to lower 60s like last night.
Tomorrow, above normal temperatures will continue across the
region as the upper level heights increase from the ridge
amplifying out east. This will bring widespread 80s across the
state Thursday. Friday will also be a very warm day as the top
of low level thermal ridge passes across the southern half of
the state. Therefore, high temperatures Friday for the south
central and southeastern North Dakotas are forecast to be in
the upper 80s while the north will see upper 70s. The upper
level ridge will continue progress eastward toward the end of
the week while a broad upper level trough deepens across the
Western CONUS progressing into the Central Plains. CSU machine
learning has an area of low probability for Friday and Saturday
for isolated severe weather due to increased instability.
Forecast MUCAPE around 1000-1500 j/kg and shear around 30 to 40
kts could sustain strong to severe storms. We will have to see
if the forcing mechanism, the upper level trough, reaches the
area to align with the greatest instability.
An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Northern
Plains this Saturday through Sunday bringing widespread
precipitation to North Dakota. Showers and thunderstorms could
lead to wide spread rain accumulations. The NBM has around 50
percent of 1 inch of rain down in the south central up to
Devils Lake area. Heavy rain is certainly possible with this
system as PWATs are around 1 to 1.3 inches. The NBM even has
some low probabilities around 20 percent for 2 inches of rain in
the south central. This system will bring in slightly below
normal temperatures Sunday and Monday before warming back up to
near normal by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions will persist through the period. There is an area
of showers out across western North Dakota isolated in area
should continue to diminish trough the day. A front is moving
across the west switching winds out of the west to northwest by
this evening with a brief period of gusty winds.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion