Orbisonia, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

075
FXUS61 KCTP 241359
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
959 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Periods of much needed rainfall expected through Thursday
* Rainfall signal is unclear for the weekend
* Mainly dry pattern is likely to return next week
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DFA will expire at 10AM with the visibility improving (at least
margin) across most of CPA. Updated POPs to account for faster
arrival of rain across the southwest portion of the CWA. CAMs
have been lagging for the most part, but generally show a
gradual SW to NE expansion of shower activity through the
afternoon. While there may be occasional rumbles of thunder,
instability will be rather limited given extensive multi layered
cloud deck and enhanced low level stability.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Timing of the next few shortwave troughs yields another relative
lull in precip for the first half of tonight. There is good
support for heavier rain and thunder in the late night/early
Thursday morning. The dynamics are not much to raise an eyebrow.
But, there could be a heavier downpour or two, esp in the SW.
The upper low finally starts to open some and eventually slide
through our longitude Thurs night. So, some drying is expected
later that night. As it nears on Thursday (daylight), the
falling heights/cooling aloft will help increase the chc for a
stronger storm. That threat will be more in the E vs W, esp in
the Lower Susq. Timing still looks best during the aftn and
evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main thoughts on the pattern in the long term period is that is
trending more favorable for precip/clouds to linger over srn PA
for the weekend. 20 PoPs should be fine for now for Fri-Sat,
esp considering the high uncertainty with how much Atlantic
moisture can get into PA. Potential tropical influence is a
wild card for the latter part of the long range.
Prev...
There is still plenty of spread in the model data regarding the
pattern evolution/configuration over the Eastern U.S. from late
week through the weekend. Split flow to higher amplitude
blocking solutions are possible outcomes to add to the high
uncertainty/complexity along with 1 or 2 tropical systems off
the Carolina/Southeast coast to factor into the mix. The precip
signal is not particularly strong over CPA (highest in the
southeast) -- but we are not ready to go all-in on a dry last
weekend of September. Longer term trends do eventually favor the
return of drier conditions/lower humidity by the start of next
week into early October. This transition favors the return of
warmer than climo max temps/daytime highs and cooler nights
closer to the historical average.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Yesterday`s fairly widespread rainfall that exceeded 0.25 inch
in many areas with localized amount of 1-2 inches (and even over
3 inches just to the south and southwest of KLNS) combined with
the very light wind and a period of clearing Tuesday evening to
produce widespread and mainly dense fog early today.
This fog and very low cigs will lead to widespread IFR to VLIFR
conditions through 13z before a steady transition to MVFR
between 13-15Z then VFR for the 15-19Z period across much of Central
and the Susq Valley.
Another disturbance moving steadily NE from Central and Southern
Ohio at 09Z will bring rain of varying intensity this afternoon
and even. The onset line of precip extends from KBFD to KUNV and
KMUI around 19Z with the start of this next batch of rainfall
across the NE zones coming between 21-22Z.
Flying conditions that should range between MVFR to VFR (across
much of the NE 1/2 of the CWA), trend back down to IFR or lower
in many locations after 02Z Thursday.
Next system will track northeast across the region late
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing similar conditions to
the area that we`ll have.
The timing of this feature is faster now, so more early
Thursday than late Thursday for widespread showers etc.
Less chance of showers by Friday, but now the cold front just
becomes more of a wind shift line with lower dewpoints than
anything else by the weekend.
Wind will be generally 6 KTS or less through the Aviation
forecast period.
Outlook...
Thu...Multiple rounds of SHRA and TSRA.
Fri-Sat...Still a chance of a shower.
Sun...Low cigs/vsby in possible fog early...otherwise VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Banghoff
AVIATION...Lambert/Martin

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion