Ocean Springs, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

815
FXUS64 KLIX 260438
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1138 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry forecast for the rest of the period with very warm
   afternoons and comfortable low temperatures each day.
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The cold front continues to move through the region early this
morning, a bit delayed than previously thought. Cannot rule out a
rogue shower or two out there prior to the passage. Current water
vapor imagery shows an incredibly dry layer moving in, far drier
than the KLIX 26/00z sounding showed. Anything behind the prior
prefrontal trough and the front will be very shallow with the
abundance of dry air aloft.
The front should be through early this morning with much drier air
filtering into the region. Temperatures will still warm into the
middle and upper 80s this afternoon so continued warm and perhaps
a degree or two above average, however, overnight into Saturday
morning, conditions will be cool and crisp across much of the
CWFA away from the water. Overall, the pattern experienced Friday
will carry into Saturday with perhaps even lower dewpoints during
the afternoon and upper 80s temperatures as we round out the short
term period. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Somewhat interesting synoptic setup for part of the long term.
Initially the region will remain in the dry northwesterly flow aloft
with the upper level trough continuing to reside over the east
coast. This is good for our region because there will likely be
two developed TCs out in the western Atlantic. This broad scale
trough will help keep these systems far away from our region.
Going into the start of the new workweek a Rex Block attempts to
develop over the Mississippi River Valley with an ULL sitting over
the Carolinas. This weakness and impacts from Humberto will have
an impact on what is now Invest 94L as models move it north and
west toward the Carolina Coast. The powerhouse globals have this
solution with varying strengths, however, the CMC and ICON along
with certain ensemble tracks are still a bit split with the
majority still making something happen on the Carolina Coast. The
impact here? Minimal. However, if Invest 94L does to a more
eastward track the upper level feature associated with the TC will
merge leading to a rather quick transition to extra tropical,
however, some of the upper moisture may come close to our far
northeast portions of the CWFA come later in the period. Lots of
ifs. Outside of that, dry conditions prevail with warm to very
warm days (above average at times we climb to near 90F) and
comfortable overnight for most nights with lows dropping into the
60s for those not closer to water. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Rain/convection has mostly cleared the local terminals. VFR
conditions should prevail through the cycle. Winds will gradually
shift to a more northerly direction but stay rather light,
generally less than 10kts. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A cold front will continue to move southward through the outer local
waters this morning. This will help generate a few isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas will likely be
slightly more elevated around convection. Otherwise, light to
moderate winds and seas are expected otherwise, which will persist
through the forecast period. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  64  84  62 /  20   0   0   0
BTR  86  66  86  64 /  30  10   0   0
ASD  85  66  87  64 /  70  10   0   0
MSY  87  72  88  71 /  80  10   0   0
GPT  86  69  87  67 /  70  30   0   0
PQL  86  68  88  64 /  70  40  10   0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF

NWS lix Office Area Forecast Discussion