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Oberlin, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

401
FXUS61 KCLE 211745
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 123 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move offshore of New England today as low pressure slowly drifts from the Upper Midwest into the northern Great Lakes by Monday. This low will drag a cold front slowly across the region Monday, with the front remaining nearby through late week as a series of low pressure systems track along it. High pressure will attempt to return by next weekend.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Made minor adjustments to the forecast for today. A lot of sun can be expected this morning with clouds increasing this afternoon. While it was noted that forcing for convection was limited, it does look like high resolution models are keying in on a solid region of moisture and theta-e advection, perhaps aligned with shortwave energy aloft to kick off convection late this afternoon. Storm are likely to fill in west of the I-71 corridor late this afternoon and spread northeast through about the I-77 corridor into this evening. It is less certain how the morning activity along the Ohio/Indiana state line evolves as many of the 12Z CAMs did not initialize this activity well. Expect it to largely lift northeast into Michigan but may clip counties in NW Ohio first. If this round of rain does not impact counties along the I-75 corridor then may need to lower pops for this area this afternoon.

Previous discussion...The well-advertised change to a more active pattern that will bring opportunities for badly needed rainfall is occurring this morning. The strong Canadian high at the surface located over New England this morning will drift offshore through the day allowing the broad mid/upper low over the Upper Midwest to slowly drift eastward. This low will reach the northern Great Lakes by Monday, with the trailing cold front moving into NW Ohio by Monday morning. The front will then take its time moving east, and all deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to slow the passage of the front, which now looks to be Monday afternoon into Monday night. This all points to good opportunities for most areas to see measurable rain between now and Monday evening, but the greatest chances have shifted to late tonight and Monday, with today trending warmer and drier.

This does not mean that today will be totally dry. A warm front extending east from the low is sitting over northern Ohio early this morning, with a well-defined theta-e and instability gradient gradually lifting north with the front. This front will continue to lift north of the region through mid morning, placing all of northern Ohio and NW PA in the warm sector for this afternoon. Deep southerly flow and associated warm/moist advection in the warm sector will support a very warm and humid day. Forecast soundings show little in the way of capping and MLCAPE values rising over 1000 J/Kg this afternoon, so widely scattered convection should develop. The main issue is forcing. Since the progression of the mid/upper low into the northern Great Lakes has slowed, the main piece of shortwave energy rotating around its base across Lower Michigan has also slowed to late tonight and Monday morning. This does not give much confidence in seeing anything more than isolated to widely scattered coverage this afternoon and evening, with coverage slowly increasing from west to east late tonight. With this in mind, continued the trend of slowing the timing and coverage of POPs compared to NBM today and tonight, utilizing a mix of NBM and other hi-res model guidance. If anything can develop this afternoon and evening, weak deep layer effective shear of 20-25 knots and some dry mid- level air could lead to locally gusty winds, so a SWODY1 Marginal Risk remains areawide. The best chance for this is in NW and north central Ohio.

As the aforementioned shortwave and associated 60-80 knot upper jet streak lift across Lower Michigan late tonight and Monday, synoptic forcing beneath the right entrance region of the jet will strengthen frontogenesis ahead of the slow moving cold front. This combined with a strengthening low-level jet and resultant moisture advection will finally allow widespread showers and embedded convection to move into the region. There will probably be an initial round late tonight and Monday morning, then depending on how much sunshine and destabilization can occur in the afternoon, stronger thunderstorms could develop for the afternoon and evening. Probabilities for most areas to see at least one half inch of QPF are over 90% late tonight and Monday, with some areas likely to see over 1 inch leading to some drought relief. In terms of any severe weather, the latest HREF shows increasing probabilities for updraft helicity tracks Monday afternoon over mainly NE Ohio and NW PA. This makes sense since shear and forcing will be higher, so depending on the amount of instability, a few severe storms with strong winds are possible. PWATs over 1.75 inches also support locally heavy rainfall, but given the drought, any flooding issues would be super localized to urban areas.

Highs will warm into the mid/upper 80s today, with upper 70s/low 80s Monday. A very mild night is expected tonight, with lows in the low/mid 60s.

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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will decrease Monday night with loss of daytime heating and as the shortwave and associated forcing lift out of the region. However, the cold front is likely to stall over or just SE of the region by Tuesday in response to a second mid/upper closed low tracking from the Rockies into the Plains and eventually phasing with the remnants of the Great Lakes mid/upper low by Wednesday. Guidance is finally coming into somewhat better agreement on this pattern evolution, with a broad closed low meandering around the Midwest and OH/TN Valley regions for the second half of the week. This will keep an active and moist SW flow in place over the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes regions, with multiple pieces of shortwave energy traversing the frontal boundary. The main message with this is that additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur Tuesday through Wednesday night, but timing and placement of the heaviest axis of QPF is more uncertain. The 00Z NAM suggests a strong surface wave rippling up the front late Tuesday into Wednesday, but this may be convective feedback. Given the uncertainty with timing the individual shortwaves and exact placement of the boundary, kept NBM POPS through the period, with the highest chances gradually shifting south and eastward by Wednesday and Wednesday night. The additional rains will bring drought relief Tuesday into Wednesday, but they will not be all day rains, with plenty of dry time as well.

Highs in the low/mid 70s Tuesday will cool into mainly the low 70s Wednesday. Lows in the low/mid 60s Monday night will cool into the upper 50s/low 60s Tuesday night and mainly mid/upper 50s Wednesday night.

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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Confidence further decreases in the extended given uncertainty with how the big closed low will eventually eject which affects how soon the frontal boundary will push away from the region. Stayed with NBM POPS and temperatures Thursday through Saturday, with the idea of a slow drying trend. A deepening northern stream mid/upper trough diving into the Great Lakes next weekend may finally kick the old system out, but this may not occur until Sunday. Highs will generally be in the low 70s with lows in the low/mid 50s.

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.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Cyclonic SW`erly flow aloft and embedded/subtle disturbances affect our region through 18Z/Mon. At the surface, a front has stalled in vicinity of the southern shore of Lake Erie as a ridge lingers over the lake and points farther to the north and east. The front will finally move N`ward across Lake Erie as a warm front this evening through the first hour or two of Monday morning as the ridge exits to the north and east. Behind the warm front, a separate ridge centered near the southern Appalachians builds into our region through 18Z/Mon, yet subtle surface trough axes accompanying the disturbances aloft will sweep NE`ward through northern OH and NW PA.

Ahead of the front, surface winds trend SE`erly to SSE`erly, while S`erly to SW`erly winds are expected behind the front. Our regional surface wind speeds will be around 5 to 15 knots and gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are expected at times, especially through ~00Z/Mon and in NE OH and NW PA. Primarily VFR are expected the rest of this afternoon. Cloud cover will increase and mid/upper-level ceilings will develop and lower gradually from the south and west the rest of this afternoon through evening. Ceilings will then linger and continue to lower Monday morning through 18Z/Mon. In fact, ceilings near 2.5kt to 5kft AGL are expected to overspread our region from the south and west between ~10Z/Mon and ~15Z/Mon.

At 17:10Z/Sun, rain showers were impacting KTOL and vicinity. These showers are expected to exit NW OH to the northeast by ~17:30Z/Sun. Otherwise, very isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through 21Z/Sun. Thereafter, scattered showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and overspread our region from the southwest, generally, through ~04Z/Mon. Periodic showers and storms should then continue to impact our region through 18Z/Mon. Brief MVFR to LIFR are possible with showers and especially thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may produce brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 40 knots, especially through 01Z/Mon and after 16Z/Mon.

Outlook...Periodic non-VFR are expected with scattered showers and thunderstorms through Thursday.

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.MARINE... Southerly flow is expected today, generally in the 10-15 knot range. A brief period of 20 knot flow is possible in the eastern basin late this evening into early tonight. Will have to keep an eye on this for a potential short duration small craft advisory. Winds tend to be southwest around 5 to 15 knots Monday through Tuesday before a cold front crosses Lake Erie Tuesday night. Winds veer to out of the east-northeast Wednesday and Thursday. Wind speeds are currently forecast to be around 15 knots though there are low probabilities for 20 knots and 3-5 ft waves at times, especially in the central basin.

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.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.

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SYNOPSIS...Garuckas NEAR TERM...10/Garuckas SHORT TERM...Garuckas LONG TERM...Garuckas AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...Saunders

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion

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