Oakley, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

110
FXUS65 KSLC 030939
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
339 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds are expected across western Utah today,
with the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms across eastern
Utah this afternoon and evening. Widespread precipitation will
build into northern Utah tonight behind the front...along with
much colder temperatures state-wide. A warming trend is likely for
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...One last day of warm, summer-like temperatures
around 80F for the Wasatch Front is expected before one of the
strongest fall systems impacts the region and brings temperatures
around 15-20 degrees below normal to northern Utah this weekend.
If you enjoy warm temperatures though, don`t despair as a warming
trend is likely for most of next week. The warming trend isn`t
forever though as the potential for a decaying tropical system to
bring widespread precipitation to southern Utah by the weekend
lurks in the extended forecast.
Early morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates a strong
upper level trough is crossing the Bay Area. Broad upper level
ridging remains across the southern Plains. The eastern Pacific
remains active, with Tropical Storm Octave on a path to gradually
recurve back to the east and another area of disturbed weather to
the east of Gustave, with a 90% chance of cyclone formation in the
next 7 days. This system could make Utah`s extended forecast
interesting...resembling one of the primary modes southern Utah
experiences flooding in October.
For today, 700mb winds will continue to increase through the
morning, reaching around 45-50kts across western Utah. Guidance
has continued to become more bullish with wind gusts, with the
median of several ensemble systems suggesting gusts around 45 mph.
Given deep mixing today, expect portions of west central and
southwest Utah to exceed gusts to 45 mph for several hours, with
a localized maxima of gusts to 50-55 mph near Cedar City and
Milford. Given this trend, issued a wind advisory for west central
and southwest Utah from 10 AM today through 8 PM tonight. Will
need to watch the Great Salt Lake Desert south of I-80 and the
Tooele Valley as gusts this morning have been hovering around
40-45 mph.
As the cold front approaches the Utah/Nevada border, broad upper
level diffluence combined with deep layer shear at or above 50
kts will support at least isolated severe convection, primarily
across areas east of the Wasatch Front for northern Utah and then
eastern Utah and Uinta County, WY after 2 PM today. Instability is
meager, with HREF SBCAPE 75th percentile peaking at around
300-400 J/kg, but with strong forcing, some storms should overcome
the limited instability. A deeply mixed, dry sub-cloud
environment will support strong winds and given it`s October,
small hail will be likely as well. Any strong convection will
gradually diminish after 7-8 PM.
As the cold front slowly pushes across the region as the upper
level crosses overhead, precipitation will fill in across northern
Utah, particularly from Utah County north. Expect widespread
precipitation to move into the northern half of Utah after
midnight tonight. Westerly to northwesterly flow will support
orographic enhancement of precipitation after about 15-18Z
Saturday. Total precipitation is expected to range from around
0.25"-0.75" for northern valleys, with a local maxima in areas
that do well in northwest to westerly flow, including portions of
the northern Wastach Front, where amounts in excess of 1.00" are
likely. Light snow accumulations of up to 4 inches are expected
above 9000 feet, with a 25% chance northwest/west flow areas will
see up to 6 inches.
Precipitation will gradually end late Saturday evening. Sufficient
cloud cover looks to remain across the region to keep temperatures
from bottoming out too much by Sunday morning, limiting the threat
of widespread freezing temperatures to locations with vulnerable late
season agriculture. Right now, expect a 40-50% chance temperatures
will fall to freezing for at least a short period of time for the
Sanpete Valley and outlying areas of southwest Utah. That said,
at least patchy frost is likely in these areas as well as the Rush
Valley and agricultural areas near Santaquin and Spanish Fork.
Given this trend, have no plans to issue any freeze watches with
this forecast update.
A warming trend looks likely for most of next week...but lurking
in the Thursday to Saturday period is the potential for a decaying
tropical cyclone to impact the Desert Southwest and bring with it
deep tropical moisture. Around 70% of the ensemble members shift
this moisture into southern Utah Thursday into Friday. The other
30% either move the trough through too fast to pick up this system
or shift a ridge across the region. One of the main situations
where southern Utah would see heavy rain and associated flash
flooding/general flooding in October is related to this type of
pattern, so this is something to continue to monitor moving
forward.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC
terminal through the period. Southerly winds will increase through
the day ahead of a trough that will bring isolated showers and
convection late in the afternoon. There is ~30% chance of
precipitation impacting the terminal during the afternoon/evening
with winds remaining out of the south aside from gusty and erratic
winds associated with any convection that approaches the
terminal.
.Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming...VFR conditions will persist
for the entire airspace through the period. Southerly winds will
increase through the day ahead of a trough that will bring
isolated showers and convection across the northern airspace late
in the afternoon with dry conditions and clear skies persisting
across the southern airspace. Winds will remain southerly
throughout the period with gusty and erratic winds possible near
any convection.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...It`s going to feel a lot more like fall this
weekend as a cold Pacific system moves across the region. Ahead of
the cold front, gusty southerly winds will continue through the
early evening across western Utah, primarily south of I-80. Wind
gusts in excess of 40 mph are likely, especially across west
central and southwest Utah.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop across northern Utah
east of the Wasatch Front as well as the remainder of eastern Utah
this afternoon and continue into the evening. These thunderstorms
will be capable of strong winds (gusts in excess of 50 mph) as
well as small hail and heavy rain. The cold front will slowly
move through the state from west to east, first reaching the
Utah/Nevada border this afternoon and gradually shifting eastward
through Saturday morning. Widespread precipitation is expected
across northern Utah Saturday, with precipitation chances
decreasing rapidly south of Utah County. Minor mountain snow
accumulations are likely above 9000 feet across the northern
mountains.
A warming trend is expected early to mid-week next week. By late
week, around 70% of ensemble members support a pattern that would
help to shift tropical moisture northward into at least southern
Utah Friday into the weekend, bringing widespread heavy rain.
Something to monitor moving forward.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for UTZ115-122.
WY...None.
&&
$$
Kruse/Mahan
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NWS SLC Office Area Forecast Discussion