702 FXUS63 KARX 280805 AFDARXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 305 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably mild conditions through most of the upcoming week with highs mainly in the mid 70s to low 80s.
- Staying dry, with some low rain chances later next week.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Dry and Mild Weather Through Midweek, Low Rain Chances Return Next Weekend:
Ridging builds in today as the shortwave trough that came through yesterday has exited the region. Mild and dry weather are expected through the week. Winds will shift to the southeast this morning and stay out of the southeast through most of this week. Ensemble and deterministic guidance has this ridge overhead through much of the week. As a result, temperatures are forecasted to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with some locations approaching 20 degrees above normal. This translates into high temperatures mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s. By the end of the week, ensemble guidance shifts the ridge axis to the east and most (about 85%) of the ensemble members support the ridge flattening out a bit and a longwave trough approaching from the west, however the strength and timing of this trough are quite uncertain at this time. The ridge becoming less amplified will allow for shortwaves to pass through and increase rain chances as we head into the weekend.
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.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
CIGS: mostly SKC conditions through Sunday into Monday.
WX/vsby: river valley fog remains the primary concern for KLSE. RAP/HRRR/NAM12 soundings trend too much wind in the near sfc layer for any fog/stratus to move off the river and impact KLSE - and will continue to follow this for the forecast.
WINDS: light/vrb overnight becoming more south/southeast Sunday but holding under 10 kts.
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.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.
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DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...Rieck
NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion