Norwalk, California Weather Forecast Discussion

420
FXUS66 KLOX 022116
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
216 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...02/153 PM.
A series of weak disturbances will keep a persistent night
through morning low clouds pattern going across most of the coasts
and some lower valleys through Friday. Weak offshore flow will
bring mostly sunny skies to the area for the weekend. Gusty winds
are expected Friday and Friday night for Southwest Santa Barbara
County, and some mountain and desert locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...02/215 PM.
Synoptically, the area is in a trough from an upper level 557 dam
Low west of Washington state. Central and northern California saw
some more rain today, but again it stayed north of our area. There
is a slight (~15%) chance of rain in the northern portion of the
CWA later today. On Friday, the Low will be about 565 dam and
move over central California, continuing the very low chance of
rain to the northern part of our area. By Saturday the system has
moved east to Utah, but then on Sunday the trough takes on a
positive tilt and moves back over the area through early next
week. Models are showing another developing Low west of Washington
by next Thursday that will bring another chance of rain to next
weekend.
Aside from some advisory-strength wind in the forecast for Friday
afternoon into Saturday, and some marine issues, there is no
impactful weather expected through the period.
The upper Low will continue to bring some mid/high level clouds
to areas north of Point Conception today/Friday, but best chances
of any measurable rain look to remain north of the forecast area
as best frontal dynamics are well north of the area. For
tonight/Friday morning, stratus coverage should be much more
limited with no stratus expected Saturday morning (due to the weak
offshore flow).
As for winds, will expect an increase in northwesterly winds
behind the cold frontal passage associated with the upper low
this evening through Friday night as northerly offshore gradients
strengthen. For this evening/overnight, it looks like the
Sundowner winds will remain sub-advisory in strength across the
western Santa Ynez Range. For Friday evening and night, the
chances for advisory level northwesterly winds increase to 60-80%
for the western Santa Ynez Range and to the 30-50% chance range
across the eastern Santa Ynez Range as well as the I-5 Corridor
and northwest portions of the Antelope Valley. For Saturday, there
will be some weak northeasterly winds, but speeds are expected to
remain below advisory levels.
As for temperatures, will expect a cooling trend for all areas
today and Friday with the passage of the upper low to the north.
On Saturday, temperatures will rebound with higher H5 heights and
thicknesses as well as weak offshore flow in the morning.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...02/215 PM.
For the extended, models continue to exhibit good synoptic
agreement. At upper levels, a trough will remain over Central CA
Sunday and Monday then will lift out of the area. Near the
surface, onshore flow increases on Sunday/Monday, but weakens on
Tuesday/Wednesday.
Marine layer stratus/fog should increase in coverage
Sunday/Monday with increasing onshore gradients and lowering H5
heights. However for Tuesday/Wednesday, the stratus coverage
should diminish as H5 heights rising and offshore trends in the
surface gradients. Other than any stratus, skies should remain
mostly clear through the period.
As for temperatures, a gradual cooling trend can be expected for
Sunday and Monday with increasing onshore flow and lowering H5
heights. However, those temperatures will rebound on Tuesday and
Wednesday as H5 heights rise and onshore surface gradients relax.
A bit further out into the Thursday/Friday time frame, there is
the possibility of some subtropical moisture moving into the area
as models indicate another tropical storm off the Baja Mexico
coast. Confidence in any details remains very low at this time as
models are in disagreement about the track. However, it is
something to watch for the second half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...02/1743Z.
At 1650Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1800 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2700 ft with a temperature of 17 C.
High confidence in TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD and KWJF).
Moderate confidence in remaining 18Z TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off +/- 3 hours, while flight categories may
be off by one or two.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Flight cat changes may be
off by +/- 3 hours. 25% chance of IFR CIGs OVC008 through 12Z
Friday once clouds arrive. No significant east wind component
expected through the forecast period.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Flight cat changes may be
off by +/- 2 hours. 30% chance that CIGs arrive as MVFR >0VC010.
&&
.MARINE...02/110 PM.
A GALE Warning has been issued for the waters around Point
Conception and south to San Nicolas Island as well as across the
entirety of the Santa Barbara Channel Friday afternoon into the
late night hours. Along with hazardous seas, winds up to 40 kts
are possible. Localized GALE force wind gusts are possible for the
nearshore waters along the Central Coast Friday afternoon (PZZ645).
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will linger for much of the
time across the outer waters and portions of the inner waters thru
Saturday night. Thereafter, conditions generally look to remain
below SCA criteria through mid-week.
For the waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange counties, high
confidence in widespread SCA level NW to W winds Friday afternoon
through evening, including nearshore (specifically Long Beach &
northward). There is a fairly high chance for GALE force winds
near Anacapa Island during this period. Thereafter, conditions
generally look to remain below SCA criteria through mid-week.
Seas will be large and very choppy, with seas peaking between 8
and 12 feet for the Outer Waters and nearshore Central Coast
waters, and 5 to 8 feet for the inner waters south of Point
Conception, highest in the Santa Barbara Channel.
Consider adjusting any plans or remaining in safe harbor on
Friday when conditions are forecast to be the worst.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PDT Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Friday for
      zones 650-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 2 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday
      for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday
      for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM
      PDT Friday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Thompson/jld
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...jld
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion