Nichols, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

758
FXUS62 KILM 241259
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
859 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and mainly dry weather will continue through mid week with
high pressure the dominant weather feature. Unsettled weather
is likely late this week into early next week as a cold front
impacts the area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Dense Fog Advisory has been allowed to expire. While isolated
pockets of fog remain, the fog has lifted to low stratus for
most of the area with plenty of sun seen on webcams aiding in
quickly improving conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis shows broad high pressure across the
Southeast. As of 1:30 AM EDT, fog is already much more apparent than
it was 24 hours ago. Dense fog has already formed in a couple of
isolated spots in parts of Georgetown and Pender Counties, per
station data. Fog is not widespread enough to issue an advisory just
yet, but I wouldn`t be surprised if we`ll need to issue one over the
next couple of hours before sunrise. Fog should mix out by 9-10 AM
EDT this morning.
Zonal flow aloft will become more southwesterly throughout the day,
as an upper low in the Great Lakes region deepens slightly, allowing
the associated trough to dip a deeper into the South (trough axis
itself will be oriented northeast to southwest from Michigan into
Texas). Despite the deeper southwesterly flow, there`s not much
moisture advection in play, so a dry forecast continues for much of
the area. Can`t rule out a stray shower along the seabreeze this
afternoon, but the activity should be brief, if it occurs at all.
Temperatures easily shoot up into the lower 90s inland, mid 80s at
the coast. With dewpoints well in the 70s east of I-95, heat indices
could reach the mid-to-upper 90s for a couple of locations. Lows
tonight in the lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Rain Chances: below normal Thu; near to above normal Thu night;
above normal Fri/Fri night
*Severe Storm Risk: very low Thu/Fri
*Excessive Rainfall Risk: low Fri/Sat
*Temps: above normal; near record highs inland Thu
Confidence:
*Moderate to High
Details: No major changes from the previous forecast. Expect
increasingly unsettled weather starting late Thu as a weak cold
front approaches and then likely stalls over or near the area.
Although deep layer shear will likely be elevated enough to
support organized convection and severe storms on Thu and Fri the
amount of instability is uncertain so we think the risk for any
severe storms is pretty low at this time. Warmest temps look to
be on Thu when lower to maybe mid 90s are expected inland,
which will be near record levels. Still above normal on Fri but
likely cooler given more clouds/rain.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Tropics: Watching a potential tropical cyclone off the SE U.S.
coast early next week
*Rain Chances: above normal thru Mon; near normal Mon night/Tue
*Severe Storm Risk: very low Sat
*Excessive Rainfall Risk: very low
*Temps: near normal highs; above normal lows thru Sun night and near
to above normal lows Mon night
Confidence:
*Sat/Sat Night: Moderate to High
*Sun thru Tue: Low
Details: No significant changes to the previous forecast this period
but uncertainty remains pretty high, especially early next week.
Unsettled weather is likely much of the time given an upper
trough/low lingering to the west. However, forecast details are
fairly uncertain as much will depend on the strength/track of this
upper trough/low as well as any potential tropical cyclone off the
Southeast U.S. coast.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Fog and some low stratus has created widespread IFR and LIFR
conditions across most of the terminals. Dense Fog Advisory in
effect for the KFLO and KLBT terminals until 13Z this morning. Fog
should mix out by 13-14Z, with VFR expected through the remainder of
the period. SSE winds at the coastal terminals expected this
afternoon with the seabreeze, becoming more southerly by tonight.
Slight breeze tonight should keep the fog away, though some brief
MVFR restrictions cannot be ruled out. Confidence is low enough to
keep it out of the TAF at this time.
Extended Outlook...Early-morning flight restrictions from low
cigs/vsby remain a possibility each day. Rain chances and associated
vsby/cigs periodic flight restrictions become a possibility by
Thursday, increasing significantly through the weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Winds light and variable this morning, before
becoming SSE at 5-10 kts this afternoon, veering slightly to the SSW
by tonight. Seas linger at 2-3 ft.
Thursday through Sunday...High confidence this period. A cold front
will approach late week and likely move offshore over the weekend
before stalling. The lack of strong pressure gradients and/or large
swells preclude any potential for a Small Craft Advisory.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip Currents: An elevated risk of rip currents is expected
through mid week for east to southeast-facing beaches,
especially in New Hanover County, due to easterly swells
associated with distant tropical cyclone Gabrielle.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...RJB/IGB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion