Nicholas Canyon County Beach California Weather Forecast Discussion

356
FXUS66 KLOX 132150
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
250 PM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...13/215 PM.
A rare for October storm system will bring widespread rain tonight
through Tuesday, with a threat for pockets of heavy rain and
thunderstorms. Significant risks exist for debris flows, road
flooding, and isolated wind damage. Temperatures will remain well
below normal through Wednesday, with steady warming to follow
through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...13/248 PM.
A rare and very potent storm system remains on track to affect
the area tonight through tomorrow, with lingering showers possible
into early Wednesday. All areas will see rain. Some areas will
see short bursts of heavy rain, although it remains difficult to
predict exactly where. South-facing slopes and foothills have the
highest chance of seeing those heavy bursts, but they can happen
anywhere.
Rainfall totals remain on target, with 0.75 and 1.50 inches
common, except 2.00 to 4.00 inches in the favorable south facing
slopes and anywhere those heavy bursts form. An isolated reading
of 5 inches is on the table, especially over the San Gabriels
where computer projections show the highest totals. Peak rainfall
rates of 0.33 to 0.66 inches per hour will be common, which
should be enough to cause plenty of minor road issues and heavy
traffic for the Tuesday morning commute - as well as shallow
debris flows impacting a few roads near a burn scar. A few lanes
or offramps could be flooded. Rockslides in canyon roads are
nearly certain. Isolated rates to around 1.00 inches per hour are
also likely, but again not exactly sure where. Wherever those
occur, impacts will be locally amplified. If they occur in an
urban area, several lanes of a freeway could flood. If they occur
over a burn scar, a deeper more significant debris flow would form
which could cover and close a road and or threaten structures.
That is a real possibility, with the Palisades, Eaton, and
southern Bridge burn scars having the highest threat.
In addition to the hydro risks, there is a significant threat for
severe thunderstorms capable of producing very localized but
damaging winds and or a tornado. Still seeing several signatures
(the trajectory of the low, the diffluence aloft, the high shear
environment) for supercell thunderstorms with several high
resolution models resolving finer scale parameters conducive of
isolated strong downdraft winds and/or weak tornadoes (updraft
helicity being one of them).
What should people do? For tonight through Tuesday: Avoid outdoor
activities and stay indoors as much as possible, especially if
you hear thunder, see lightning, or experience sudden wind
shifts. Avoid parking near tall trees. Be ready for sudden power
outages. Avoid the roads as much as possible, and if you have to
drive, allow extra time as traffic will be increased due to
slippery roads, low visibility, and localized flooding. If you are
near a burn scar, there is a risk of significant debris flows.
Heed the advice of local officials, and expect at the very least
mud and debris on some roads. Boaters, please stay in safe harbor.
For everyone, stay tuned to your local news outlet and
weather.gov for any updates.
In addition, there will be a period of gusty southwest winds
focused over the interior areas. Snow levels remain high (above
7,000 feet) for the majority of the precipitation, but they lower
to 5,500 to 6,000 feet after the main rain later on Tuesday. So
while this is not a big snow maker of a storm, any post frontal
showers could be some light accumulations down to 6,000 foot
elevations.
By Wednesday afternoon or evening, any linger showers should end.
Drying and warming northwest to north winds will quickly follow
Wednesday Night and turn northeasterly on Thursday. Gusts in the
20 to 35 mph range are the most likely outcome. Temperatures will
increase as a result, along with a warming airmass, with highs in
the 70s common by Thursday.
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...13/249 PM.
Some models are showing the northeast flow that forms on Thursday
increasing some more on Friday then decreasing through Saturday.
Meanwhile high pressure will be building over the southwest.
Temperatures will continue to rise as a result, with highs in the
mid 70s to mid 80s common Friday through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...13/1805Z.
At 1715Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 5000 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was near 5800 ft with a temperature of 8 deg C.
Low confidence overall in the 18Z TAFs.
Expecting SHRA after 00Z Tue along Central Coast and after about
03Z-05Z for VTU/L.A. Counties with MVFR conditions at times.
Around a 40% chance of TSRA during this timeframe for KPRB, KSBP,
KSMX, & KSBA, with a 20%-30% chance elsewhere later this evening
thru late tonight. Expect visibility reductions under heavy
rainfall. Brief IFR conditions cannot be ruled out.
LLWS and turbulence is possible as front approaches and near any
thunderstorms that develops.
Low to moderate confidence in wind forecasts. Wind gusts may be
off 5 to 10 knots and/or direction by 30 degrees, especially for
coast and valley sites after 00Z Tuesday - as front approaches.
KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 18Z TAF. MVFR CIGs 015-
025 common thru much of the period. Reduced visibility due to
heavy rainfall likely as strong storms arrive with front.
Conditions may fall to IFR at times with the front later tonight.
There is a 20%-30% chance of a thunderstorm from 05Z to 13Z Tue.
There is a 90% chance of an east wind component reaching up to 15
knots thru 21Z today, and a 40% chance of an east wind component
of 10-15 knots at times 05Z-18Z.
KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Reduced visibility
due to heavy rainfall likely as strong storms arrive with front.
Conditions may fall to IFR at times from 06Z to 15Z Tuesday.
20%-30% chance of a thunderstorm 06Z-12Z tonight.
&&
.MARINE...13/104 PM.
This afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, a storm system and
associated cold front will move across the region. This will bring
a 20-40% chance of thunderstorms across all the coastal waters
during that timeframe. Any thunderstorms that form may be capable
of frequent cloud to surface lightning, gusty and erratic winds,
small hail, and even a waterspout. Please see the latest Marine
Weather Statement (LAXMWSLOX) for further details.
For the outer waters and inner waters N of Point Sal, Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds are expected (60%-70% chance) with the
cold front tonight into Tuesday morning, then decreasing from the
west behind the front Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.
Wednesday through Thursday increasing NW winds will likely reach
SCA levels once again. Best chances south of Point Conception.
Conds should then be below SCA levels Friday through Saturday
night.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, S to SW winds
increasing to SCA levels are expected across the area mainly
tonight into Tuesday morning as the front approaches and moves
through the region. There is also a 50% chance of Gale Force
winds over these waters later tonight into early Tuesday. Conds
should then be below SCA levels Tuesday night through Saturday
night.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for zones
      38-342>345-351>353. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Flood Watch remains in effect from 8 PM PDT this evening
      through Tuesday afternoon for zones
      38-88-342-344-345-348-353-355-358-362-368>375-377>380-548. (See LAXFFALOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Tuesday for zones
      376>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones
      650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Kittell
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...RK
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion