Ney Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

977
FXUS63 KIWX 132355
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
755 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog possible again tonight, especially east of I-69.
- Near to above normal temperatures through the weekend with
  highs in the 60s and 70s.
- Showers likely, thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
A pronounced low level moisture gradient persists this evening
across the western Great Lakes. Satellite imagery/sfc obs
indicate a 5-8k ft cloud deck along this boundary from far
northwest Indiana into extreme western Lower Michigan. Some
amplification of Mid MS Rvr Valley low/mid level ridging will
allow for some increase in low level north-northwest flow which
should allow this theta-e gradient and associated cloud deck to
make a little eastward progress tonight. Best chance of fog
development once again appears to be for areas east of I-69
corridor which should have less cloud cover for much of tonight.
Near sfc/sfc dew points and cross over values are a bit lower in
comparison to yesterday, but weak northeast flow off Lake Erie
could promote some greater fog potential across NW Ohio and
into far NE Indiana. Greatest potential of dense fog appears to
be across NW Ohio early Tuesday AM, but at least patchy dense
fog potential does appear to be in place across far NE Indiana.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Showers over northeast IL and WI were weakening and are not
expected to reach the forecast area. Light east flow should
prevail over most areas tonight with a good chance for ground
fog redeveloping east of I-69. Have added patchy fog in this
area for late tonight and early Tuesday. Otherwise, an upper
level ridge should build east help keep high temperatures close
to 15 degrees above normal including the mid to upper 70s into
Friday as as a large positive height anomaly prevails from the
Ohio River to Hudson Bay. Anomalously large diurnal temperature
ranges should accompany this pattern through Friday given the
antecedently dry ground conditions and dry air over the region
with dew points near 50 degrees. Diurnal ranges may exceed 30
degrees until the ridge pattern breaks down late in the week.
Rain is likely over the weekend along with the chance for
thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected. WPC rainfall for
the forecast area is generally around an inch for the 7 days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 755 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
A low level thermal/moisture boundary across the western Great
Lakes is shifting eastward this evening in response to upstream
low/mid level ridge amplification. The potential of greater
cloud cover across NW Indiana leads to lower confidence in fog
for KSBN. The focus for fog development overnight into early
Tuesday still looks to be across northwest Ohio and possibly
into northeast Indiana where more optimal radiational cooling
conditions are expected, and where light near sfc northeast flow
should advect more favorable moisture westward from the eastern
Great Lakes. With low confidence on westward extent of this
potential, will carry just a TEMPO MVFR vsby at KFWA in the 09Z
to 13Z timeframe. However, this will need to be monitored as at
least brief IFR/LIFR conditions cannot be ruled out early
Tuesday AM. Otherwise, VFR conditions to persist this period
with north winds around 10 knots expected during the day
Tuesday.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Marsili
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion