Newington, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

056
FXUS61 KBOX 301102
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
702 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and dry weather conditions continue today, but a cold front
will allow for cooler onshore winds to develop. Northeast winds
increase tonight and especially into Wednesday, and gusts could
reach as high as 40 mph across the Cape and Islands as Hurricane
Humberto makes its closest approach. While neither Wednesday nor
Thursday are ideal beach days due to the breezes and cooler
temps, high surf and rip currents will affect the beaches. Above
to well above normal temperatures are expected by the weekend
which continues into early next week. Dry weather is expected to
prevail today through the early part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
315 AM Update:
Key Messages:
* Decreasing high clouds today, but with northeast breezes.
* Highs mid 70s/near 80 inland; upper 60s/low 70s coastal areas.
Details:
Weak sfc ridging continues to govern across Southern New England
early this morning; a rather dense canopy of high clouds continues,
a feature which covers much of the eastern seaboard associated with
high level moisture advection from TC Imelda located northeast of
the Bahamas. Well into northern New England lies an east-west
oriented sfc cold frontal boundary, which lies through central ME
westward into Quebec. This feature is expected to sag southward
through Southern New England during the mid morning to early
afternoon hours today.
Still looking at another dry day today, with high clouds generally
decreasing in extent as we move through the day. The cold front will
be marked by a northeasterly windshift upon its passage, and this
onshore component to the wind will keep the east coastal areas quite
a bit cooler than further inland. Despite mostly sunny conditions,
immediate eastern coasts may struggle to reach the low 70s with NE
speeds around 10-15 mph and some modest gusts to 20 mph out over the
Cape and Islands; further inland across central/western MA, much of
RI and CT, temps should reach into the mid 70s to near 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
315 AM Update:
Key Messages:
* Clear and dry, but breezy to windy with cooler than normal
  high temps.
* NE gusts 35-40 mph over the Cape and Islands Wed, gusts around
  20-30 mph westward into the coastal plain of RI/MA. Lighter
  northerly breezes inland.
* Highs Wed in the upper 50s/near 60 southeast coast, to the mid
  60s inland.
Details:
This period of the forecast will feature cold and dry advection,
along with a tightening pressure gradient from sfc ridging tied to
strong 1030+ mb ridge over western Quebec and the east-northeast
passage of TC Humberto well southeast of 40N/70W. This will support
enhanced northerly breezes, especially the further southeast one
goes.
Tonight...
Mostly clear skies for tonight; however NE/N winds will begin to
pick up through the night, and especially after midnight. Cold
advection (925 mb temps drop to around +5 to +7C by Wed morning)
will also be on the increase. Despite otherwise favorable
radiational cooling conditions, NE winds well inland around 10
mph should keep low temps well inland closer to the mid 40s to
lower 50s. Over RI, eastern and southeast MA, NE winds around
10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph will probably keep low temps up
some into the mid 50s. Strongest NE winds are expected over the
Cape and Islands with gusts in the 30-35 mph range overnight to
early Wed; and despite the cool advection, temps may not drop
much further than the upper 50s. There are also some indication
of cold air stratocumulus over the eastern waters which could
bring some cloudiness to southeast MA and RI, supporting
generally milder low temps here.
Wednesday...
Not too much change on the synoptic-scale, with a tight
northerly pressure gradient supporting a breezy to gusty Wed,
along with full sun and a cool and dry airmass advecting in.
Northerly gusts out over the Cape and Islands could reach around
35 to 40 mph into midafternoon before relaxing somewhat late in
the day; with gusts 20- 30 mph over RI and eastern/southeast
MA. Gusts are lighter (around 20 mph or less) further inland
where the airmass should be drier (RH`s around 35-40 percent,
kept slightly higher due to cooler temps). Pretty cool start to
October with highs inland in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Over
southeast New England, onshore breezes will probably keep highs
only in the upper 50s, potentially not climbing much at all.
Finally...a word about rip currents/high surf. 7 to 12 ft
swells are expected Wed, which leads to a high rip current risk
and high surf; but with temps only in the 50s to go along with
northeast gusts 35- 40 mph near the southeast coast, it`s really
not going to be a great beach day. For that reason, no high
surf advisories have been issued; but if you are going out to
the beach, use extra caution as the rip current risk is high and
beaches are now unguarded by lifeguards.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Prolonged dry weather continues - next chance for rain is
  maybe late Tuesday.
* Temps through late week are seasonable, but above to well
  above normal temps are anticipated for the weekend into early
  next week.
Details:
Strong surface high pressure will progress near and just south of
Southern New England for late in the week, and remain more or less
stationary through the early part of next week. Temps will remain
near to slightly cooler than seasonable for Thu and Fri, with lots
of sun and dry weather.
Moving into the weekend and into early next week, a substantial warm-
up in temperatures is expected. Highs this weekend could push near
the mid 80s in spots under full sun and the dry soils, with temps in
the upper 70s to lower 80s for early next week. These are about 10-
15 degrees warmer than early-October climo. While winds look to be
on the light side, the protracted spell of warm and dry weather
drying out soils as well as autumn leaf-drop could lead to fire
weather concerns. We may not see appreciable rainfall until around
Tue night or Wed, but that is far from a certainty.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12Z TAF Update:
Today: High confidence.
VFR; a dry cold front will bring a windshift to NE between
13-17z from north to south, with speeds around 7-12 kt, with
gusts sub-20 kt late in the day over the Cape and Islands.
Tonight: Overall high confidence but moderate on low clouds over
the Cape and Islands.
Generally VFR, although FEW to BKN cold-air stratocu off the
water could bring VFR/MVFR bases at times overnight tonight. NE
to N winds increase to around 20-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt Cape
and Islands, around 10-15 kt/ 20-25 kt gusts BOS-PVD, and around
10 kt inland.
Wednesday: High confidence.
VFR. NE gusts 30-35 kt Cape and Islands, around 20-25 kt for
BOS/PVD. Lighter northerly winds inland.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Winds become NE @ 10kt around
14z. NE to N winds increase tonight.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night through Saturday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Today: High confidence.
SCAs in effect on most of the southern and eastern outer waters
today due to building 5-7 ft swell from TC Humberto. Winds will
become NE through the late morning with speeds increasing to
around 10-15 kt with gusts in the low 20s kt range.
Tonight through Wednesday: High confidence.
A tightening pressure gradient and cooler air over the milder
waters will allow for increased northeast winds.
Gale Watches adjacent to the Cape and Islands have been
converted to Gale Warnings, which take effect at Tue night and
run through Wed night. NE gusts increase tonight to around 25-35
kt in the Gale Warning area, with 30-35 kt gusts more likely
into Wed. Elsewhere, SCAs are in effect for most of the
remaining waters, with gusts around 25-30 kt. NE winds over
eastern portions of ANZ256 may approach gale force Wed. Seas
will be building to 7-12 ft over the outer waters, and around
4-6 ft nearshore.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.
Thursday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ230.
     Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ231>234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237-
     256.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ254-
     255.
     Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/FT
MARINE...Loconto

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion