Newbern, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

930
FXUS61 KRNK 231835
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
235 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Broad area of low pressure over the central United States will
move slowly east with time, resulting in a daily chance for
showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow.
Upper shortwave swinging across the area along the longwave
trough to the west has reinvigorated some isolated convective
triggering in the last hour or two following a diminished area
of precip earlier this morning. Progged destabilization looks to
allow for about 1000 J/kg though thermal profile looks quite
tall and skinny so updrafts may struggle to get much ascent. The
bulk layer shear also isn`t impressive but looks to be a bit
greater than yesterday. There is still a chance for strong to
isolated severe development with gusty wind as the main threat
but this threat seems isolated at best.
Wednesday looks to have the area in a broader SW flow aloft as
the longwave trough edges closer and there could be some weak
perturbations focusing clusters of convective development but
doesn`t appear to have as much amplitude as the shortwave today.
Still thinking scattered showers and general thunderstorm
coverage for the most part but some slightly stronger deep
layer shear near 30-35 kts could support more organized storm
development in the western CWA, which matches up with the Day 2
Marginal Risk from SPC. PWATs look a bit higher as well so any
development could get hydrometeor loaded aid to downdrafts and
associated gusty winds with heavy downpours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1) A cold front will approach the area late week, bringing
widespread rain chances.
2) Temperatures will stay near to just above average.
A surface low pressure system will be across the Mississippi River
Valley Wednesday night and will move generally northeast into the
Ohio River Valley on Thursday. Storms that instigated during the day
on Wednesday will be slowly weakening through the night as daytime
heating is lost. Some storms could still remain severe early on for
the western mountains, with damaging winds as the threat.
For Thursday, the associated cold front with the low will remain off
to our west initially, but a southerly flow of moisture ahead of it
will help to trigger afternoon showers/storms. This front will also
have support from an upper-level longwave trough, increasing lift
across the area. Surface winds will be elevated, with gusts of 15-20
mph possible in the afternoon. With the increased wind energy
present, and some shear also expected, severe weather will be
possible along/east of the Blue Ridge, mainly in the form of
damaging wind gusts. Confidence in this is medium, as severe weather
will be determined by the amount of clear skies present Thursday
morning. While some clearing is expected to occur, if overnight
storms linger into Thursday morning, this would reduce the severe
threat due to heavier cloud cover.
By Friday morning, the front clears through, but the upper trough
lingers off to the west and turns into a cutoff low, detaching from
the main jet stream off to the north. This will keep showers and
storms in the forecast on Friday, as the southerly flow of moisture
aloft will continue.
Rain totals will be modest, with around 0.50" expected area-wide,
with up to around an inch for the western facing mountains due to
being closer to the trough. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall
is forecast for Friday, as the rainfall on Thursday will set the
stage for any additional heavy rainfall that falls Friday to
potentially cause isolated minor flooding in low-lying, urban, and
flood-prone areas.
Temperatures stay mild, with highs in the 70s west of the Blue Ridge
each day. The Piedmont will see highs in the mid 80s Thursday,
before lowering slightly behind the front to the low 80s on Friday.
Overnight lows will be in the 60s Thursday morning, falling into the
50s to low 60s by Saturday morning behind the front.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1) A cutoff low will linger over the Southeastern US, keeping a
chance of storms in the forecast each day.
2) Increased cloud cover and rain chances will keep temperatures
right around normal.
The upper-level cutoff low that broke off from the main flow on
Friday continues to linger across the Deep South through the weekend
and into next week. The counter-clockwise flow around the low will
continue to drive moisture from both the Gulf and Atlantic into the
area on Saturday, with afternoon showers/storms expected. By Sunday
into early next week, drier air begins to wrap around the low into
the Mid-Atlantic, limiting the convection potential, though PoPs
remain around 20% as diurnal heating will continue to keep storms
possible each afternoon.
There is some uncertainty in the forecast next week, as some models
are hinting at the possibility of a tropical system developing this
weekend in the Western Atlantic and nearing the East Coast early
next week. Confidence in this remains low, though the NHC has noted
the area as Invest 94L, with a 60% chance of development. This will
continue to be monitored and forecast adjustments will be made as
confidence increases in whether a potential system could form.
Highs remain consistently around normal for this time of year, in
the 70s each day area-wide. The highest elevations could remain in
the upper 60s. Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s to around
60 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Tuesday...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
into evening with an upper disturbance could lead to some
reduced VSBYs and VRB gusts. Cigs mainly 4-5 kft and alto level
this afternoon with possible lifting later this evening. MVFR
and lower cigs possible for the mountain sites later tonight
into Wednesday morning along with reduced VSBYs. Could see a
similar trend Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms
for most sites again. Winds generally SW 7 kts or less during
the daytimes and light to calm overnight.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the
remainder of this work week as a broad upper level trough of low
pressure and associated surface cold front slowly tracks
eastward and across the Appalachian Mountains. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities are possible in the heavier storms, and some
patchy fog may occur during the overnight hours in response to
the increasing moisture. Thursday appears to have the greatest
coverage of showers and thunderstorms during this stretch. By
Saturday, the cold front should reach the East Coast as drier
air brings more widespread VFR conditions.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...AB/PM

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion