New Milford New York Weather Forecast Discussion

804
FXUS61 KOKX 080644 CCA
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
244 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front swings through during this morning. A large dome
of high pressure builds tonight into Thursday. Canadian high
pressure settles over the area for the end of the week, and
slides offshore over the weekend. Low pressure develops south of
the region late in the weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Showers/steadier rain will continue to shift east through the
area during the pre-dawn hours. A SW flow of unseasonably mild
and humid continues in advance of an approaching cold front.
There remains some model disagreement as to how soon the
steadier rain presses further east in the eastern most portions
of the area. Chose to take an NBM blend for the most part in
terms of precip / PoP timing across the region. BUFKIT soundings
(most higher res members) suggestive of some instability
(100-400 j/kg) with Showalter indices getting to around 0, thus
introduce isolate thunder wording towards sunrise this morning.
Thus, a few rumbles of thunder are possible, but should be the
exception rather than the norm.
The cold front pivots through the city into the morning commute.
Immediately behind the front shower activity lightens with a quick
wind shift to the N and NNW. The front is expected to move through
the city in the 13-14z timeframe, and off the eastern end of LI and
So. CT towards 16-17z. With any steadier or heavier rain shutting
off at those times. A few lingering showers may persist for an
additional couple of hours but will be lighter in intensity and more
scattered in nature. Gusty N to NW winds should dry things out
quickly into the afternoon, and the late afternoon well east. The
unseasonably humid and warm weather abruptly comes to an end with
temperatures a good 10 degrees cooler into the afternoon. It turns
more crisp and fall like for the afternoon and into the evening.
Skies clear quickly from west to east during the afternoon.
Rainfall totals look to be on the order of 0.50 to 1.0 inch.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Clear skies with more of an autumn feel during the period. A much
drier and cooler Canadian air mass will dominate with a stiff breeze
out of the N continuing into the day on Thursday. With the wind
staying up Wednesday night temperatures fall back primarily into the
40s. On Thursday sunny skies with high pressure continuing to build.
As the high gets closer later in the afternoon the winds should
start to diminish some, with a more noticeable relaxing of the winds
towards early evening. Temperatures will actually be below normal
with highs struggling to get out of the upper 50s in some spots,
otherwise high temperatures will be in the lower 60s. Dew point
readings will be all the way down into the 30s, so a much drier fall
air mass.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold to start Thu ngt with a mid 1030s high building over the
region. A freeze is possible for the normally coldest locations. The
NBM was followed, but those numbers will be too high if the timing
of the high verifies.
Fair wx Fri thru the day on Sat with this high transitioning across
the area. Highs on Fri a solid 5 degrees or more blw climo. Temps
and dewpoints increase on Sat with an ely flow off the Atlc
developing. An increase in high clouds are likely as well from low
pres to the S.
Low pres spins up along the stalled front off the SE CONUS over the
weekend. This low gradually strengthens by Sun, with chances for
rain spreading up the E coast. The modeling suggests the low may
slowly track up the coast Mon into Tue, resulting in additional
chances for rain and increasing winds, especially at the coast. If
the low does get close enough to produce steady rains, would expect
high temps to end up lower than currently fcst. The NBM has been
followed.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front passes through this morning with high pressure building
in behind it.
Lowering to MVFR in shra for most terminals during the pre-dawn
hours and continuing through the morning push, but some IFR
conditions mainly away from the city terminals. Improvement to VFR
late this morning/early afternoon with VFR to continue thereafter.
S-SW winds gust around 20kt with a shift to NNW behind the cold
front later this morning. Gusts increasing 20-25kt this afternoon,
with the gusts lingering into this evening for some terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts through the morning push may be only occasional. Shift to NNW
may occur around an hour earlier than indicated in TAFS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Late tonight: VFR. NW-N gusts 20-25kt mainly for KLGA and KJFK.
Thursday: VFR. N gusts around 20 kt, mainly in the morning.
Friday-Saturday: VFR.
Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain. NE gusts 25-35kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Small craft conditions will prevail on the ocean waters and the
south shore bays through much of today and tonight, and at
least the first half of Thursday. More marginal small craft
conditions are likely for the eastern half of LI Sound and the
eastern bays of LI. A small craft advisory may eventually be
needed for these non-ocean zones at some point, but as of now
small craft advisory gusts appear to be more occasional. Late
Thursday afternoon conditions may fall below sca criteria, but
timing remains uncertain. Winds and seas blw sca lvls Thu ngt
thru the day on Sat due to high pres. Winds increase Sat ngt,
with gales possible on Sun as low pres strengthens to the S.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Despite rainfall through this morning, there are no hydrologic
concerns at this time throughout the forecast period as dry
antecedent conditions have prevailed.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Light winds on Fri look to limit the cstl flood threat. Still, some
pockets of minor are possible due to the residual supermoon spring
tides.
There is a high degree of uncertainty as to how much low pressure to
the south early next week will impact the local area. Given
potential for fairly strong NE flow between the low and high
pressure to our north, there could be multiple rounds of widespread
flooding Sunday and Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for CTZ005>008.
NY...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JC

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion