New Auburn, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

996
FXUS63 KMPX 270854
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
354 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry & breezy conditions could lead to hazardous fire weather
  conditions this afternoon.
- Warm & dry weather continues through next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A weak cold front continues to pass eastwards through the region
overnight, but only a thin band of clouds is present along the
front with little moisture return into the region. The main
weather concerns from this front will be a few hours of breezy
winds behind the front, with winds gusting to 20-25 mph through
early to mid afternoon. Much drier air will also filter into
the region behind the front with RH values dropping below 30% by
late afternoon. Some concerns for fire weather will exist this
afternoon, but the wind gusts diminishing mid-afternoon as RH
values really dry out will mitigate the severity of this risk.
SImilar dry conditions are expected Sunday afternoon, but any
wind gusts near 20 mph will be limited to far-western Minnesota.
The warm & dry pattern becomes even more pronounced to end the
month as upper level ridging strengthens over the midwest early
next week. Ensembles show temperature anomalies peaking around
15 to 20 degrees above normal Monday & Tuesday, meaning highs
well into the 80s look likely across the area. Most guidance
continues to depict a frontal passage for the end of next week,
which will at least temper the the warm pattern somewhat,
although ensemble guidance still keeps temperature anomalies
above normal next weekend & into early October. Models have
trended drier with the frontal passage Thursday through Friday,
with any appreciable signal for precipitation remaining limited
to the Dakotas & western Minnesota. The upper level jet becomes
more active over the region next weekend, which looks to be a better
chance for more widespread rain across Minnesota & Wisconsin.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions through the period with a few clouds accompanying
a frontal passage this morning. Winds will transition from
southerly overnight to southwesterly as the front approaches,
and finally northwesterly as the front passes from west to east
across the area this morning. A few hours of northwesterly winds
gusts around 20 kts are expected after the front passes this
morning with speeds dropping back below 10 kts by mid to late
afternoon. Winds become either light & variable or calm after
sunset.
KMSP...Expect a wind shift to northwesterly with the frontal
passage around 6-7 AM. northwesterly winds gust around 20 kts
after the frontal passage through mid-afternoon.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SSE 5-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...ETA

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion