Nescopeck, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

257
FXUS61 KBGM 231823
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
223 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will become nearly stationary across the region
through Wednesday then push northward as a warm front Thursday. This
will bring periods of rain, plenty of clouds and humid conditions.
High pressure will then build into the region behind the front by
the weekend and into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds and showers will continue over the region into this evening
as a stalled frontal boundary lingers. Dew points and overall
moisture levels are elevated, but the lack of any daytime heating is
holding instability down, below 500 J/kg across the region.
Therefore, there is a chance for a few embedded thunderstorms
heading into this evening, but not expecting anything strong or
severe. The rainfall gradually tapers off to isolated showers and
drizzle overnight as the frontal boundary drops south and east;
likely just outside of our CWA. With ample lingering low level
moisture and light winds, this should set the stage for areas of fog
overnight, some of which could be locally dense at time. Lows only
dip down into the mid-50s to lower 60s tonight.
Wednesday morning likely starts off with fog and stratus clouds, but
mainly dry conditions. Heading through the day, the fog lifts and
scatters out but it will remain mostly cloudy. Showers and and
perhaps a thunderstorm begin to pop up in the afternoon and early
evening out ahead of the next approaching, compact low pressure
system. The warm front approaches quickly from the southwest
Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, likely bringing widespread
showers and areas of rain overnight...along with a chance for
thunderstorms. PWATs are still progged to be between 1.6 to 1.8
inches overnight, so the rainfall should be efficient with warm
cloud layer depths reaching 10-11k ft. Warm and humid weather
conditions persist with highs well into the 70s and overnight lows
between 55 to 65F forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Most of the latest model guidance tracks the compact low pressure
system off to our NW, across southern Ontario and near the western
end of lake Ontario during the day on Thursday. This track would put
our forecast area in the warm sector of this system, with some hints
of a mid level dry slot pushing into the area. At the same time a
surface cold front is expected to be pushing west to east across
Central NY and Northeast PA. This will keep periods of rain/showers
in the forecast along with a chance for thunderstorms. Exact timing,
frontal placement and amount of instability remains uncertain at
this time. There is the potential for at least several hundred J/kg
of CAPE and deep layer shear of 40 to perhaps 50 kts in the 0-6km
layer as this system moves through. This is enough to prompt SPC to
include parts of the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for
isolated severe storms. This potential will be something we will
need to closely monitor trends on over the coming days. Total
rainfall from this system (Weds Night - Thursday) should range
from 0.75 to 1.50 inches around the area.
Otherwise, Thursday should be cloudy and humid with highs in
the upper 60s to mid-70s and dew points well into the 60s.
The cold front should sweep through the area by Thursday evening,
with a west-northwest flow developing Thursday night. A few showers
could linger, otherwise it remains mostly cloudy and mild with lows
in the mid-50s to lower 60s. The upper trough axis will be over the
area on Friday, but could begin to move east by afternoon. This
should mean a few scattered showers with clouds gradually decreasing
late in the day. Mild temperatures continue. Weak high pressure
looks to build Friday night, keeping skies mainly clear to partly
cloudy and likely dry weather. Slightly cooler lows in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
This period starts off with mainly dry and partly sunny weather
Saturday.There is a slight chance a few showers could push in from
the south during the afternoon hours, associated with an upper level
low over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Right now, the
majority of model guidance keeps our CWA dry though.
A large, expansive surface high and upper level ridging then looks
likely to build over the area Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. This will
keep our weather dry, mostly sunny and warm. Highs each day in the
extended should be in the 70s with cooler overnight lows in the 40s
to lower 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low stratus continues to bring MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling
restrictions this afternoon, with occasional brief improvement
to VFR. There are also some scattered light rain showers/drizzle
around. By this evening, conditions will deteriorate as plenty
of low level moisture will result in widespread fog and/or low
ceilings. IFR-or-worse restrictions look likely at all
terminals, with the greatest chance being at KBGM, KELM, KITH,
and KRME. At those terminals, VLIFR restrictions cannot be ruled
out. By mid-late Wednesday morning, conditions are expected to
improve somewhat (back to MVFR to Fuel Alternate).
Outlook...
Wednesday afternoon...Lingering clouds with MVFR ceilings
possible.
Wednesday night through Thursday...Showers and associated
restrictions likely.
Friday through Saturday...Generally VFR, but still a chance for
some showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM/MWG
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BJG

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion