Nenana, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

742
FXAK69 PAFG 132238
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
238 PM AKDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Generally quiet weather across Northern Alaska with a few rain
rain showers lingering in the Interior valleys and isolated snow
showers along the North Slope, Brooks Range and highest terrain of
the Interior. Mixed sun and clouds over the West Coast will
continue for much of the week. Temperatures across the board will
be below normal through Monday, then warm back up to near normal
beginning on Tuesday then continuing through the week.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- A few flurries possible in the White Mountains and Dalton
  Highway summits today/tonight, otherwise isolated rain showers
  possible through Monday.
- Steadier rain possible in the Eastern Interior accompanied by a
  front moving north from the Gulf on Tuesday/Wednesday.
- Below normal temperatures (30s/40s) will creep back up to near
  normal by midweek (50s/60s).
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Quiet weather with chilly temperatures and a mixture of
  sunshine/clouds this weekend and into next week for the West
  Coast and most of the Western Interior.
- Isolated showers and pockets of light rain around the Western
  Alaska Range today and tomorrow.
- Dry weather for much of next week with temperatures warming up
  to near normal (upper 40s to mid 50s).
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Isolated snow showers, especially tonight through Monday morning in
  Atigun Pass. Little to no accumulation expected.
- Light snow and rain along the Chukchi Sea Coast with an little
  to no accumulations in the coastal communities.
- Temperatures are near to slightly below normal but gradually
  rise to near normal (30s to low 40s) by midweek.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A broad trough over Western Alaska and the Bering Sea will persist
through the weekend and into next week with little to no change in
the pattern. Overall, there will be low pressure extending from
the Arctic to the Gulf with higher pressure from a Canadian Ridge
in Eastern Alaska. A 531 decameter low over NW Alaska is the
driver of this pattern and will continue to meander north through
next week. A series of lows in the Gulf will move northward giving
much of Eastern Alaska southerly flow. The weather from this will
be pretty nice in Western Alaska with dry conditions, near normal
temperatures and periods of sunshine. Over Eastern Alaska, it
will be warming up to near normal temperatures, but strong
shortwave energy from the Gulf lows will provide chances for rain
early next week.
The models are in good agreement and the pattern is fairly
predictable in the short term. The one thing that is most
uncertain is the timing of rain in the Interior, especially
towards midweek. Starting off Monday afternoon, there will be a
strong shortwave moving from south to north providing rain to the
Eastern Interior. There will be several shortwaves thereafter,
and rain could be periodic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Most
uncertainty comes on these two days as there are a lot of moving
pieces of energy. Nonetheless, expect a warmer, but somewhat rainy
and cloudy week in the Central and Western Interior.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
We are still holding on to a slight chance for thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening along the Alcan Border from Eagle south to the
Alaska Range. No other thunderstorms are expected through early
next week. Temperatures will be warming back into the 50s and 60s
with RHs around 40% by Tuesday.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Not much change to the forecast in the extended. Troughing
persists over the Gulf and West Coast with southerly flow and weak
ridging over Eastern Alaska. There will be mild temperatures in
the Interior with chances for rain each day. Otherwise, it will
be mild and dry in the Western Interior and West Coast. The North
Slope and Brooks Range may have chances for snow and rain,
especially Wednesday and Thursday as a wave of energy moves north
from the Gulf. Otherwise, we are not anticipating much in the way
of impactful weather this week.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&
$$
Bianco

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion