Nellis Afb, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

530
FXUS65 KVEF 031729
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1028 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A low pressure system will bring gusty southwest winds to the
  region today, with increased precipitation chances for the Great
  Basin and eastern Sierra.
* Temperatures will be slightly below normal through the weekend
  before rising back to near normal next week.
* Dry weather is expected from Saturday at least through Wednesday.
  Beginning Thursday, there is a chance for tropical moisture to be
  pulled into the Desert Southwest, but there is a lot of
  uncertainty.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday. Early morning satellite loop
showed two bands of clouds associated with the incoming trough - one
located in northwest Inyo and western Esmeralda counties and the
other located in Clark and Lincoln counties. Area radars showed weak
returns over the Sierra Nevada with occasional lightning strikes.
Surface obs showed warmer and drier conditions than 24 hours ago
with areas of gusty southwest winds. The winds will be the main
forecast concern today. The Wind Advisories for the Spring Mountains
and most of the San Bernardino County deserts still look good. Just
north of the northwest tip of the Spring Mountains, Desert Rock has
started to gust early this morning. There has been a history of
isolated downslope winds in this area during the early part of wind
events before the mean wind vector veers from southerly to
southwesterly. Since this will affect Highway 95 but not Pahrump
(the population center in the same forecast zone), will handle it in
conjunction with the highway patrol rather than expanding the
Advisory. Farther north, chances for showers and thunderstorms along
with high mountain snow will swing east through Inyo, Esmeralda,
Nye, and Lincoln counties today and tonight. Amounts should be light
and more beneficial than hazardous, barring any training
thunderstorms. The main low will exit to the northeast Saturday
morning, leaving behind a weak baggy trough for the first half of
next week. This will result in a slow, steady warming trend from
about five degrees below normal Saturday to near normal Wednesday.
From Thursday onward, forecast confidence is very low. By that time,
the next low in the westerlies is expected to be nearing the West
Coast, with the usual uncertainty in the exact position/track/depth.
At the same time, presumed Hurricane Priscilla is forecast to be
somewhere west of the southern tip of the Baja. Will the low in the
westerlies be far enough south and east, and will Priscilla be far
enough north, for tropical moisture to be pulled north into the
Desert Southwest? Well...maybe. We can`t be sure that it will, but
we also can`t be sure that it won`t. Timing is also a big question.
Some model solutions show chances for showers and storms southeast
of I-15 as early as Thursday, others show a stormy weekend, and
others keep the moisture away from our area altogether. Will
continue to monitor trends.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty
southwest winds of 27 to 32 knots will persist into early evening,
with a 25 percent chance of gusts reaching 35 knots before 03Z.
After sunset, winds will ease somewhat, with a brief lull possible
late tonight ahead of a northwesterly wind shift as a front moves
into the Valley shortly after daybreak. A period of gusty
northwesterly winds is expected during the late morning, followed by
decreasing speeds tomorrow afternoon and evening. VFR conditions
will prevail through the TAF period, with FEW-SCT clouds around
25kft AGL into tonight, then becoming SKC tomorrow.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty winds will
continue across the region into this evening, with gusts of 25 to 35
mph common. Winds will remain elevated across the western Mojave
Desert through the night while other areas should decrease to less
than 15 knots. A cold front moving south into the region will be
accompanied by a northwesterly wind shift, which is expected to move
through southern Nevada terminals tomorrow morning and the Colorado
River Valley sites by midday. VFR conditions will prevail in most
areas with FEW-SCT clouds around 25kft through tonight, then
becoming mainly SKC tomorrow. The exception will be central Nye and
northern Lincoln Counties, where a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible through 03Z today.  CIGs down to 10kft
AGL are possible in the vicinity of this activity.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Planz
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion