Naponee, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

885
FXUS63 KGID 170945
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
445 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler temperatures for the remainder of the work week with
  off and on isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
- Organized severe weather is not expected, but a few strong
  storms with small hail, gusty winds, and heavy downpours will
  be possible south/southeast of the Tri-Cities late this
  afternoon and into the evening.
- Mainly dry and warmer (widespread 80s) for the weekend, though
  chances for showers and thunderstorms aren`t completely zero.
- Near to above normal temperatures favored to continue through
  next week with no signs of significant/sustained cool-down
  anytime soon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Thunderstorms have been on a distinct downward trend over the
past 1-2 hours, in both intensity and coverage, as outflow from
last evening`s strong makes quick progress well SE of the area.
Water vapor imagery suggests a narrow zone of large scale
subsidence should ease into the area from the W/SW this morning.
However, isolated to scattered showers and weak thunderstorms
could percolate off and on just about anywhere through late
around midday thanks to modest low level warm aid advection
from a veering low level jet. Additional weak perturbations
emanating from the broader upper trough over the central
Rockies could also provide sufficient lift for new development.
Anything we see this morning won`t be nearly as strong or
widespread as what we saw late last evening.
By late afternoon, expect at least SOME clearing to work it`s
way into the area - particularly into areas from the Tri-Cities,
W and SW. Latest hi-res guidance has come around to the idea
that the primary instability axis will setup a bit further S
than expected 24 hrs ago, so appears the greatest potential for
organized convection during the late aftn-eve will be across
central into eastern KS along and S of I-70. Nonetheless,
appears some potential will still linger further N into our
area, though this will probably be predicated on actually seeing
some of that aforementioned W to E clearing. CAMs generally
depict the area from York to Superior to Osborne and points S
and E from there as having the best chance for this aftn/eve
development. IF the clearing materializes, then lingering
seasonably rich low level moisture and modest ~25kt deep layer
shear could support a few pulsey strong storms and small hail.
Lack of stronger shear and better mid level lapse rates should
preclude anything real organized in our forecast area. Clouds
and recycled rain-cooler air should keep temps a solid 10-15 deg
cooler than yesterday.
Primary upper trough will only SLOWLY edge eastward over the
next few days...so will continue to see off and on, mainly
isolated to widely scattered, shower and thunderstorm chances
through the end of the work week. With that said, overall trend
has been for generally lesser coverage and lower chances than
anticipated 24-48 hours ago. This appears to be due, in part,
by a more notable mid level dry slot. It`s becoming increasingly
probable that geographically we`ll be split between the primary
deformation/wrap-around moisture to the N, and the greatest low
level moisture/instability to the S/SE. Still favor at least
20-30 PoPs for the daytime Thu, but it just seems activity will
favor more of and "heating of the day/popcorn" type variety and
limited coverage. Some of the experimental NSSL CAMs also
indicate some potential for narrow lines/waves of convection
associated with MCVs/vort lobes to rotate through the area W to
E during the overnight hours...but confidence on specific
timing, placement, and coverage is LOW. Being on the backside of
the upper low to the N will continue to favor mostly 70s for
highs on Thursday. Same general pattern continues into Friday
but with even slimmer (though still non-zero) rain chances.
Weakening/departing upper trough will allow for rebounding
temperatures over the weekend with highs returning into the 80s
each day. In fact, Sunday could be quite warm and humid again
with favored warm spots perhaps making a run into the low 90s.
Despite some shortwave ridging, I`m hesitant to say the weekend
will remain completely dry as I just don`t trust the somewhat
"dirty" zonal to NW upper flow. Various models indicate as least
one or two weak shortwaves moving through over the weekend, but
my confidence on exactly when and where is NOT high. Just kind
of one of those patterns where we`ll have to keep an eye on
potential for PoPs to incr.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in rough agreement of
another upper trough sometime early next week, but vary widely
on the overall magnitude. This trough will be of Pacific origin,
so don`t expect an overly strong cold front with it, which
should favor a continuation of mostly near to above normal
temperatures next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Complex TAF forecast with ongoing areas of convection next few
hours, followed by potential for at least MVFR stratus later
this morning and additional hit & miss convection. Afternoon is
trending drier and mainly VFR, though confidence is low.
Convection: widespread showers with embedded weak convection
will continue for a few more hours before activity shifts off to
the E/NE. Transitioned from prevailing to tempo in the 08-10Z
time frame, then PROB30s for most of the rest of the morning
given expected uncertain timing/coverage and generally isolated
nature. Have held off on PROB30s for the aftn as latest hi-res
guidance has been trending drier thanks to a mid level dry slot,
but confidence in this holding is low. Will just need to take it
in few hour chunks today.
CIGs/VSBYs: Will start off VFR, but then confidence rapidly
deteriorates towards dawn as some guidance brings in widespread
MVFR to perhaps even IFR stratus...whereas other guidance is
more SCT-BKN and hit and miss. These differences are likely
owing to uncertainty in timing/extent of clearing of convection
and general low level mass fields. Have continued prevailing
MVFR CIGs in roughly the 12-18Z time frame, before some lifting
and scattering arrives for the aftn. It`s possible the AM could
trend worse - more solidly IFR...but it`s also possible the
stratus could be more transitory. Confidence is very low.
Wind: gusty NW winds have moved in to both terminals past couple
of hours, but these should gradually weaken and turn more N-NE
by dawn. Expect continued veering to SErly for Wed AM, and
perhaps even SW-W at some point this aftn. Speeds most of the
period should average 8-12kt, but some gusts can`t be ruled out
this aftn depending on clearing and overall mixing.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion