Nanuet, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

384
FXUS61 KOKX 301955
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
355 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure builds in from the north behind a
departing cold front this evening. The high remains over the
Northeast and Mid Atlantic through the weekend. The high then
moves slowly offshore the beginning of next week with a cold
front approaching the area late Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The area will still see plenty of cirrus for the rest of the day,
but this will be on a diminishing trend with a mostly clear sky
everywhere by the end of tonight. Winds pick up tonight from the N
to NE, mitigating radiational cooling. Cold air advection will be
stronger tonight, so even without radiational cooling being a
factor, low temperatures should fall into the mid 40s well NW of the
city with 50s for most other locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
It will feel like Autumn on Wednesday with the cooler air mass
settled in. Plenty of sunshine and somewhat breezy with a tighter
pressure gradient over the area. Highs 65-70, which is a little
below normal. Mainly clear and cool Wednesday night with diminishing
winds. This will allow lows to fall into the mid to upper 30s well
NW of the city, but mid 40s to low 50s for most other spots. Didn`t
add frost to the forecast yet, but patchy frost could be possible in
parts of Orange County late at night.
High pressure continues to settle in on Thursday with its center
shifting SE through New England. Sunny with maybe some cirrus
pushing in by late in the day. Below normal high temperatures once
again as they top out only in the mid 60s. The cirrus will likely
continue to filter in from the west Thursday night. So in spite of
light to calm winds, conditions probably won`t be ideal for strong
radiational cooling. Will hold off again on adding frost to the
forecast for the time being, but patchy frost could be possible well
NW of the city where temps could fall into the mid-upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry through the period as high pressure remains over the northeast
and Mid Atlantic region. The high begins to move offshore during the
beginning of next week. And a cold front approaches late Tuesday,
with chances for precipitation late day into Tuesday night. However,
timing of the front remains highly uncertain, as the upper flow
becomes more progressive early next week.
Near normal temperatures are expected Friday and Friday night, then
milder conditions will be across the region Saturday through Tuesday
with temperatures 5 to near 10 degrees above normal. At this time no
record highs are expected to be set.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the north through the week.
VFR. High cirrus persists today, thinning out tonight.
N/NE flow strengthens into this evening with the building high,
and speeds generally increase toward 15 kt after 00Z. Occasional
gusts to 20 kt are possible late today, but more frequent gusts
develop this evening, up to around 25 kt overnight and through
the morning push, before beginning to lighten into late
Wednesday afternoon. Direction remains N/NE through the period.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts of up to 20 kt possible late this afternoon.
Isolated gusts to 30 kt possible Wed AM.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday PM: VFR. NE gusts 15-25 kt, highest gusts at coastal
terminals.
Thursday-Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A SE-S swell from the tropical systems out in the western Atlantic
will build to 7 to 12 ft by Wednesday morning. The pressure gradient
also tightens tonight into Wednesday with gusts reaching advisory
levels on all waters. Perhaps a couple of gusts to gale
force late tonight into Wednesday morning on the ocean, but not
enough for a Gale Warning. SCA for the ocean waters now through
Thursday, and will probably need to eventually extend the SCA
here into Thursday night. SCA is also up for most of the non
ocean waters for late tonight through Wednesday afternoon due to
gusts. For eastern LI Sound, swells probably will have seas
elevated up to around 5 ft in parts starting this evening and
lasting through Wednesday night. The SCA here has been adjusted
accordingly.
Winds and waves will remain below SCA levels Friday through Sunday
night as high pressure remains over the forecast waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A coastal flood statement remains up for high surf impacting
the oceanfront.
A building southerly swell due to multiple tropical cyclones
well off the eastern seaboard will produce large breaking waves
along the oceanfront today into Wednesday. Expect surf to build to 6
to 10 ft by tonight with an incoming S swell increasing to 6 ft 14s.
Fortunately, water levels are not expected to get too high as we are
about a week out from a full moon. However, expect some beach
flooding and minor damage to dune structures. Coastal flooding
beyond the beachfront is unlikely.
The swell period and height are expected to diminish Wednesday night
into Thursday, but impacts could last into at least Wednesday
evening. Another statement could be needed, but not enough
confidence at this moment to extend the statement into Weds night.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ331-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ332.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion