Muscle Shoals, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

856
FXUS64 KHUN 250215
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
915 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 915 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
An area of showers and thunderstorms, some that produced locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds have moved east of the NE Alabama
and NW Georgia border. This activity was continuing to the south
and west from around I-20 and the state line to SW Alabama. Other
showers that were on a diminishing trend extended from
north/central Mississippi, then SW to coastal Texas. Rainfall
totals across the area today so far have ranged from 1/4 to 1/2 of
an inch upwards of over 2 inches. The higher end of this resulted
in minor flooding of prone areas, as well as rises on some rivers
and streams. Flooding risks have ended for now, given that the
heaviest rainfall has moved east of the area.
The models were in generally good agreement for additional showers
to affect the area in the overnight. There however is considerable
disagreement between the models with timing and how much more
rainfall could occur. Leaning more with the faster updating HRRR and
RAP, additional upper level disturbances traversing through a
conditionally unstable and moisture rich environment should lead to
more shower/thunderstorm development in the overnight. Timing for
them is expected mainly in the overnight. Given it`s night time
with cooler conditions and a not so unstable environment, am
expecting mainly showers with some embedded thunderstorms. With
precipitable water amounts on the high side for this time of year,
more locally heavy rainfall is possible. Instances for showers
appear to be isolated to scattered in coverage, thus not expecting
large impacts at this time. Expect one more night of unseasonably
mild temperatures for the overnight, with lows in the mid 60s to
around 70 with light S-W winds.
On a larger scale, weak troughing over the eastern Lower-48 will
amplify as we go into the upcoming weekend. A cold front now
extending southward from low pressure over northern Arkansas, will
move across the Tennessee Valley during the day Thursday. Lift
provided by this front will help continue chances for more showers
and thunderstorms. With more clouds than sun, rain chances, and an
airmass change getting underway, high temperatures tomorrow should
be a bit cooler, in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The stronger
storms are expected to remain east of the area. In a still moist
environment, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will possible
in the heavier showers and/or stronger storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 915 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A push of somewhat drier air should end rain chances over our
western areas Thursday evening. But residual moisture remaining
over our more eastern areas will allow for lower end rain chances
Thu evening, with rain ending after midnight. The cooler airmass
will be somewhat noticeable, as low temperatures by Friday morning
cool into the lower 60s. The frontal boundary during Friday should
be slowly shifting to the east across the Georgia to Virginia
Piedmont. It`s proximity to the east and sufficient lower level
moisture remaining; along with daytime heating, will result in
isolated to scattered (15-40% - higher chances to the east) shower
and thunderstorm chances Friday afternoon. Outside of showers, a
bit cooler Fri with highs in the mid 70s east to around 80 west.
Temperatures should cool a bit more Fri night, falling into the
mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Saturday to close out the week
should range from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lower end shower
chances cannot be ruled out Sat afternoon for locations east of
the I-65 corridor.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 915 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Late this weekend into early next week, there is model agreement
that an upper level ridge is forecast to creep into the Tennessee
Valley from the west. Sfc high pressure will subsequently take over
the region, allowing mostly dry conditions through the long term
period. Highs during this time are forecast to be in the low to mid
80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. One thing to
watch will be how the tropics unfold to our east by mid week and if
we get any additional moisture and resultant rainfall. Overall,
however, should be a benign forecast with very low chances for
rainfall each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
An area of showers/thunderstorms have shifted east of the area as
of TAF issuance. Additional lighter showers were approaching from
western MS; which should reach the area between 03Z/05Z. Did not
include thunder in the TAF given uncertainty on timing and how
intense the showers will be. A cold front is forecast to move from
west to east across the area during the day Thu. Additional
showers and t-storms are possible Thu afternoon late in the TAF.
Given timing uncertainty, did not include them in this issuance.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RSB

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion