Morsemere, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

690
FXUS61 KOKX 241134
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
734 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary remains stalled across the region today and
into tonight before lifting northward as a warm front late tonight
into early Thursday. A slow moving area of low pressure and cold
front will then impact the region from Thursday through Friday.
Weak high pressure briefly builds into the area Friday night into
Saturday. A second cold front will move across on Sunday,
followed by high pressure for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A stationary front remains across the region through today and
chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain especially late
morning into the afternoon as instability increases with daytime
heating.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A stalled frontal boundary across the region begins to lift
northward as a warm front late tonight into early Thursday
morning. A weak area of low pressure passes west and north of
the area through Thursday night dragging a cold front across the
area. Chances for showers and possibly thunderstorms continues
tonight into Thursday, and with increasing precipitable water up
to 2 inches and frontal lift periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall will be possible late tonight into Thursday evening.
Local nuisance flooding will be possible and much of the area
is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday into
Thursday. Additional a few thunderstorms could become strong
Thursday as low level shear increases, and gusty winds will be
possible. And all of the region is in a marginal risk for severe
weather. With this potential added gusty winds and heavy
rainfall to the weather Thursday into Thursday evening.
The cold front moves east Friday morning and the chance of
showers diminishes. And the area may be dry dry late day into
the night as weak high pressure builds into the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NBM was followed with no changes.
Key Points:
* Another cold front approaches Saturday and moves through on
  Sunday.
* Chances of showers persist late Saturday into Sunday.
* Drier conditions expected late Sunday into the first part of
  next week as high pressure builds back into the region. A
  frontal boundary remains to the south of the region.
* Daytime temperatures will be near to slightly above normal
  Saturday through Tuesday. Nighttime lows will be above normal
  Saturday night through Monday night and return to more normal
  levels Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A stationary front remains across the area today. The front
moves north as a warm front into Thursday.
A mix of categories this morning with mainly VFR for the city
terminals and MVFR or IFR for outlying terminals. Most improve
to VFR or MVFR through the day. Around and shortly after 00Z,
widespread MVFR and IFR conditions are expected with an increase
in SHRA. Embedded TSTMs are possible as well, especially to the
north of the NYC and LI terminals. SHRA persist through at
least the first half of Thursday.
Light and variable winds 10 kt or less this morning become
mainly E/SE at 10 kt or less. Winds slowly increase into
Thursday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Brief MVFR possible this AM. TSTMs possible this afternoon and
evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday through Saturday: Periods of MVFR or lower with
showers possible. Isold tstms possible at times.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Ocean seas remain elevated into this afternoon with long period
swell slowly subsiding. Thereafter, winds and seas remain below
advisory levels across the forecast waters through Sunday
night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms will produce widespread rainfall of
1-2 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, tonight into
Thursday evening. With the potential of brief moderate to heavy
rainfall brief nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage
locales will be possible across the area. Antecedent conditions
have been notably dry though, so the risk for flash flooding is
low.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk continues into this evening as long
period 4-5 ft SE swell slowly subside. The risk lowers to
moderate for Thursday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion