Morgantown, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

551
FXUS61 KPHI 301741
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
141 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region tonight, with strong
high pressure building south into the region and remaining in
place through the weekend and into early next week. Several
tropical systems over the western Atlantic ocean will remain
away from the Mid- Atlantic coast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Our area is currently under fairly weak flow aloft, with
Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda over the Western Atlantic basin
to our southeast, a ridge axis across central portions of the
country, and the polar jet dipping southward into far northern
New England. With time, the ridge over the central tier of the
US will expand eastward into the area, becoming the dominant
feature. At the surface, a cold front to the north of the area
will move through the region tonight. Strong high pressure
centered over portions of Ontario will expand southward into the
area thereafter.
Widespread cloudiness from Imelda`s cirrus shield is prevalent
across the area, though there has been some thinning noted on
visible imagery. With very limited moisture, the approaching
cold front is not expected to trigger any showers. However, it
will bring clearing skies and notably cooler temperatures with
its passage. Lows tonight will generally range from near 50
across eastern PA and northern NJ to the upper 50s to near 60
across southern NJ and the Delmarva. Across the higher
elevations of the Poconos and far northern NJ, temperatures
should fall into the 40s. High temperatures on Wednesday will be
in the upper 60s to near 70 areawide, with mostly clear skies.
With high pressure building to the north and the hurricanes to
our southeast, a tight pressure gradient will begin to take
shape across the area tonight and during the day on Wednesday.
It will be somewhat breezy across the entire area, with gusts to
around 25 mph possible beginning late tonight. Near the coast,
however, this pattern will favor wind gusts perhaps to near 40
mph. Winds should begin to taper off some by late afternoon or
early evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Broad high pressure will be centered over eastern Canada
Wednesday and will build down into the Northeast on Thursday
with the center of the high over the Gulf of Maine and around
Cape Cod by Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, what are currently
Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Storm Imelda will be well east
of the Southeast coast and will depart. This will allow the
northeast pressure gradient over the area to relax Wednesday
night and Thursday, and winds along the coast will gradually
diminish during this time. High pressure remains in control
through Thursday night.
Skies will be clear Wednesday night and mostly sunny on
Thursday. Clouds begin to increase Thursday night.
Temperatures will be several degrees below the seasonal
averages during this time. Lows Wednesday night will range from
the low to mid 40s in the southern Poconos, northern New Jersey,
and Lehigh Valley, and in the upper 40s to low 50s for southern
New Jersey, the Delaware Valley, and Delmarva. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 50s along the coasts due to the proximity of
the warmer ocean waters. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid
and upper 60s. Lows Thursday night will be similar to Wedensday
night. There is the potential for radiational cooling away from
the coasts and away from the urban areas especially Thursday
night resulting in cooler temperatures. Not expecting
temperatures to be cold enough to support frost development.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure over eastern New England and the Gulf of Maine
builds south and will be centered over the western Atlantic
ocean off the Mid-Atlantic coast during this time. Return flow
sets up behind the high, and this will allow a warmer air mass
to return to the area for the weekend and start of the new week.
Temperatures return to seasonal averages Friday, and then will
be several degrees above normal from Saturday through Monday,
with highs around 80 in most areas during this time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Through 00Z...VFR. Broken high clouds. Northeast wind around 10
kt. High confidence.
Tonight...VFR. Broken high clouds will scatter out from north
to south through 01-03Z. Northeast wind generally 10-15 kt.
Gusts 20-25 kt are possible at KMIV and KACY. High confidence.
Wednesday...VFR. Northeast wind 10-15 kt with gusts around 20
kt for most terminals. For KMIV and KACY, northeast wind 15-20
kt with gusts 25-30 kt. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Sunday...VFR. NSW.
&&
.MARINE...
Confidence remains high in gale force winds in frequent gusts
beginning this evening and continuing into Wednesday afternoon.
Based on guidance this afternoon, have upgraded the marine zone
north of Manasquan Inlet to a Gale Warning, and therefore all
ocean zones now have a Gale warning from 6 PM today through 6 PM
Wednesday. Gusts near 40 kt are expected. For the Delaware Bay,
gusts near 30 kt are anticipated a small craft advisory in
place.
Seas across the ocean zones around 4-6 feet initially will grow
to 7- 11 feet during the day Wednesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Thursday...SCA conditions are expected
to continue across all ocean zones, and lower Delaware Bay.
Northeast winds will range from 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt
gusts, and winds diminish throughout the day Thursday. Seas
remain elevated at 5 to 7 feet.
Thursday night...SCA may have to continue on the ocean for
elevated seas exceeding 5 feet, which will subside through the
night.
Friday through Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions on the waters with
fair weather.
Rip Currents...
Today, the long period swells associated with the tropical
systems to our south will continue to build and this will result
in a HIGH risk for the threat of dangerous rip currents at all
beaches. Generally expect rough surf conditions as wave heights
in the surf zone look to be around 3 to 6 feet. Increasing
onshore winds of 10-20+ MPH are expected. The Rip Current
Statement remains in effect for Tuesday.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
A high risk of rip currents is likely to continue through the
remainder of the week. However, the surf program and SRF product
ends on September 30. This will be the final day that rip
current statements will be issued.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strengthening northeast winds through later today into
Wednesday will lead to a piling up of water along the ocean
front, back bays, and the Delaware Bay. Widespread minor coastal
flooding will develop for these areas with the Wednesday
afternoon and evening high tide cycle. Tidal flooding is not
expected along the Chesapeake Bay for the eastern MD zones.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents until 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...High Risk for Rip Currents until 7 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ430.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ450>455.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Cooper/MPS
NEAR TERM...Cooper
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...Cooper/Hoeflich/MPS
MARINE...Cooper/Hoeflich/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion