Mitchellville, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

123
FXUS62 KCHS 231813
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
213 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure north of the region will weaken throughout the
day. A slow moving storm system could affect the area later
this week and into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Isolated sea breeze showers along the SC coast this afternoon
should dissipate by late afternoon. Surface high pressure will
build over the western Atlantic, with low-level flow turning to
the S by late tonight. Can`t rule out patchy fog later tonight,
especially across inland areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Aloft, modest ridging should be in place Wednesday into Thursday,
prior to the arrival of a long-wave trough and leading h5 vort
energy late Thursday into the Friday. This should result in warmer
and relatively dry conditions mid-week with afternoon highs in the
low-mid 90s and lows in the low-mid 70s. Conditions become more
unsettled heading into late week as the mid-upper trough helps drive
a sfc cold front to the region late Thursday, then eventually across
the local area Friday. Southerly flow will help advect deeper
moisture to the region while fropa occurs, suggesting the potential
for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms (largest
coverage Friday). Although timing will play a significant role in
thunderstorm strength, a few stronger thunderstorms are possible
along near fropa. Once fropa occurs, temps become noticeably cooler,
limiting Friday afternoon highs in the mid-upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Aloft, a mid-upper trough will slowly slide east, placing several
rounds of h5 shortwave energy across the Southeast United States
while a cold front shifts further offshore and eventually stalls
across the western Atlantic this weekend. Some guidance suggests the
mid-upper trough attempting to become a cutoff low, drifting across
the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast United States late weekend, helping
produce unsettled weather conditions post fropa into early next
week. The upper low and placement of the front offshore could play a
factor in tropical interests across the central/western Atlantic
early next week, but a considerable amount of spread/uncertainty in
overall tropical cyclone development/track remains next week. NHC
currently depicts a few regions of possible development across the
central/Western Atlantic, but will need to be monitored closely
during the next few days until the pattern becomes more clear.
Regardless, temperatures this weekend will return close to seasonal
normals, generally in the mid-upper 80s for highs and mid-upper 60s
inland to lower 70s near the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated showers will develop this afternoon near the SC coast,
potentially impacting KCHS or KJZI, albeit briefly.
Calm winds and increasing low-level moisture overnight could
result in some fog or low stratus at any terminal, especially
late tonight. The guidance is somewhat mixed on how widespread
or long-lasting this could be. We included MVFR conditions at
all three terminals for several hours beginning late tonight.
Extended Aviation Forecast: VFR conditions should prevail at
CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through Thursday morning. TEMPO flight
restrictions are possible Thursday afternoon through Saturday with
low clouds and reduced vsbys associated with showers/thunderstorms
along a passing cold front this weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
No concerns through tonight.
Wednesday through Saturday: A weak pressure gradient will be in
place across local waters mid-week with winds primarily from the
southeast and no higher than 10-15 kt through Wednesday night. Seas
will also slowly subside during this timeframe, generally to 2-3 ft.
On Thursday, the pressure gradient will slowly tighten throughout
the day in response to a large-scale trough and associated sfc cold
front approaching the Southeast United States from the west-
northwest. A slight uptick in southerly winds is anticipated during
the day, generally around 15 kt, followed by more frequent southerly
winds in the 15-20 kt range Thursday night into Friday as a front
approaches and shifts across local waters to start off the weekend,
then possibly stalls beyond local waters offshore late weekend. Seas
should also respond with fropa, building up to 3-4 ft. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms could accompany the front and persist into
late weekend. Post fropa, seas should subside about a foot and winds
should turn more northwesterly and return to the 10-15 kt.
Rip Currents: Onshore flow and arriving swell energy of 2-3 ft with
a period of 11-12 seconds will be supportive of a Moderate Risk of
rip currents at all beaches through Wednesday.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/JRL

NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion