Mirabile Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

394
FXUS63 KEAX 122028
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
328 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Light rain possible east of I-35 tonight.  Rainfall amounts are
  expected to generally be a tenth of a inch or less.
* Warming temperatures expected Tuesday and beyond keeping
  temperatures above seasonal averages.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Warm air advection showers rooted near 10-12K
feet have developed within the last hour or so across northern
Missouri.  These showers are evaporating before reaching the ground.
Surface trough centered just north of Minot ND along the border of
Saskatchewan and Manitoba is expect to deepen and shift northeast
through the overnight.  Attendant cold front across the eastern
Dakota into Central Nebraska is expected to build southeast tonight
entering northwest Missouri after 03Z Monday, shift southeast of I-
35 after 06Z tonight. Cold front is expected to stall east of I-35
with weak isentropic lift develops after 06Z along and ahead of the
front on the 305-310 K surface. The lift is largely confined to 700
mb and above, and a wealth of dry air exist in the sub cloud layer.
Therefore, light rain showers are possible overnight into Monday
morning; however, dynamics dwindle farther to the east.  Expect
heaviest precipitation in Linn and Miami Counties, with decreasing
amounts farther east.  Rainfall amounts look to be light, generally
totaling a tenth of an inch or less in locations that see any
precip. What limited lift exists dwindles after 12Z Monday though
scattered to broken clouds will remain throughout the day. The
stalled front is expected to lift back to the north late on Monday
as a series of short waves move northeast into the Northern Plains.
Northwest Missouri has a small chance of being
clipped by the disturbance on Tuesday, but is dependent on the
strength of the upper level ridge re-building north across the center
of the country. This will lead to primarily dry conditions and a
warming trend through late week.  With the above average
temperatures continuing, outside of Monday and Tuesday, the drought
conditions are likely to continue if not increase some throughout
the week.
Slow moving upper trough across the western US much of the week
attempts to shift towards the central US late week.  This system is
pushed north by the upper ridge in place, but approaching cold front
could re-introduce precipitation to the region as early as Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Marginally gusty southeast winds are expected to continue
through the afternoon hours, abating towards sunset. Cold front
is expected to work into the region tonight, stalling in the
vicnity of KC- Macon County. The best chance for shower activity
will be along and ahead of the front, mainly keeping best rain
chances south of highway 50. With that said, rain is expected to
be very light, with little to no reductions in visibility.
North-northeast winds are expected north of the front.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion