Mineral Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

352
FXUS63 KSGF 091934
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
234 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slightly cooler temperatures and mostly sunny skies are
  expected through this evening with temperatures around
  seasonable normals.
- Isolated to scattered showers or a storm will be possible
  mainly along and north of I-44 (10-20%) with the better
  chances north of Highway 54 (20-40%).
- Above average temperatures in the 80s are then likely (>75%
  chance) to return to the region late this week into the
  weekend. Mostly dry weather is also expected, with a few
  exceptions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Scattered to broken middle level clouds were moving through the northwesterly
flow aloft over the Ozarks. Thanks to weak isentropic lift on
the 300K surface and a subtle shortwave in the 700-750mb flow, a
few showers impacted some locations from Osceola to
Springfield. The showers had to work through ample dry air with
only a trace to a few hundredths of an inch or rain occurring.
The middle level energy will weaken this afternoon along with
losing the upglide on the 300K surface, though middle level
clouds will continue into this evening. Surface winds will
remain light and southerly overnight. Temperatures will be
warmer (Middle 50s) in the western half of the Ozarks, west of
Highway 65 and in the middle 40s east of Highway 65.
Another middle level shortwave is expected to move through the
upper level northwesterly flow Friday morning, similar to what
we saw today.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
The upper level ridge over the Plains will continue building as
an impressive upper low begins to push onto the Pacific
Northwest. Despite the building ridge, a weakening low level
jet, isentropic uplift and condensation pressure deficits less
than 8 mb will lead to the potential for showers and isolated
storms (10-20%) mainly along and north of I-44 through the day
and into the evening. The best chances (20-40%) for
showers/thunderstorms will be along/north of Highway 54 closer
to where the LLJ is slightly stronger and upglide is better.
With the ridge building over our area, temperatures will begin
to warm back up to above seasonable averages, with highs
potentially reaching the low 80s (along/west of I-49) Friday.
Through the weekend the warming trend will continue, with highs
reaching the mid 80s by Sunday (5-10 degrees above normal for
this time of year).
Towards the beginning of next week, models have continued show
a weak upper level trough approaching the region from the west.
This may bring another limited chance for rain chances (15-25%)
of showers/thunderstorms for portions of southeastern Kansas and
far west central Missouri. There remains some uncertainty
regarding the progression of this system, timing, frontal
positioning, etc., so continue to monitor models as we get
closer to this timeframe.
By the middle of next week the ridge begins to flatten with an
upper low becoming cutoff off the coast of California. This will
allow for an atmospheric river of moisture to make its way into
the plains from the Pacific. While currently there are no
expectations for rain noted in the models, any subtle wave
moving through the pattern may allow for rain development.
Looking at ensemble models however, probabilities of rainfall
greater than 0.10 inches of rain through Oct 20th is less than
10% with the exception of tomorrow, Oct. 10th, which is only
around 15-20%.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
A few showers were moving across the region to the south
southeast thanks to some middle level energy. Despite VFR flight
conditions, a few showers will remain possible into this
evening. Southeasterly surface winds will continue with speeds
from 5 to 10 kts.
Despite ridging building into the area Friday, additional
middle level energy may bring additional showers or an isolated
storm to the region Friday morning and to a lesser extend Friday
afternoon. Coverage an timing confidence are limited and was
not included in the forecast.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion