Milligan, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

847
FXUS64 KMRX 292303
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
703 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
- Most areas will remain dry today with low chances for showers
remaining in far eastern areas.
- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday,
focused mainly in the eastern half of the area.
- Dry seasonal fall weather is expected Wednesday through the
  weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Currently, a ridge is over the Eastern U.S. with surface high
pressure centered near the Great Lakes. TS Imelda is just north of
the Bahamas. TS Imelda will continue on a northerly course, well off
the coast of Florida before making a sharp easterly turn late
tonight or early tomorrow. WPC has a stationary boundary analyzed
near the coast of the Carolinas. A significant plume of moisture can
be seen on satellite over the Carolinas near this boundary. Showers
late this afternoon will creep into far eastern areas mainly NE
Tennessee and SW Virginia. Some showers will continue overnight in
the far eastern areas near the mountains.
Tomorrow afternoon has the best chances for showers and a few storms
as the boundary near the Carolina Coast and moisture advection
continues. Instability will be high enough tomorrow afternoon
(around 900 J/kg) that a few storms will be possible especially near
the mountains. PWat values will be around 1.5 inches tomorrow
afternoon which is close to the 90th percentile. Coverage will be
better by tomorrow afternoon but rain chances are still mainly
confined to east of I-75 with highest chances closer to the
mountains, NE Tennessee and SW Virginia. Flooding issues are not
expected with fast storm motion likely.
Tuesday night through the weekend will be dry as Imelda moves east
taking that tropical moisture eastward. A ridge will be over the
region through the weekend along with surface high pressure centered
over the Northeast. Temps will be slightly above normal to near
normal late this week through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
There will be some sprinkles and/or showers around mainly TRI,
with the best chance early tonight and again tomorrow. Big
question is if they will see any low cigs and/or fog at TRI, and
how much precipitation they receive will be a factor which is
still unknown at this time. Will keep TRI mainly VFR other than a
prob30 shower MVFR group tomorrow afternoon. At TYS and CHA, VFR
conditions look likely for the period, and the chances for showers
at these two sites look too low to include for now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  85  63  85 /   0  10   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  63  82  60  83 /  10  20   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       62  82  60  83 /  10  20   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              62  77  57  80 /  30  40   0   0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion