Merritt Island, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

591
FXUS62 KMLB 011912
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
312 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions including life-
  threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of at
  least 5 to 8 feet, and minor to moderate beach erosion expected
  through at least part of the weekend.
- There is potential for locally heavy rainfall along the coast
  tonight. Flooding concerns continue along the coast through at
  least this weekend.
- Breezy and gusty conditions continue through late week and into
  the weekend, with the highest gusts anticipated along the
  coast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Rest of Today-Tonight...Mostly dry conditions this afternoon,
then there is potential for locally heavy rainfall along the
coastal corridor during the overnight period. Hurricane Imelda and
the remnants of Humberto near Bermuda continue to depart quickly
to the east-northeast, as surface high pressure builds down the
eastern US and Atlantic seaboard. The pressure gradient over
Florida between these features has loosened a bit today, resulting
in north-northeasterly winds up to around 10-15 mph this
afternoon. This onshore flow is continuing to provide decent
low- level moisture as evident by the healthy cu- field, but very
dry air above 700mb filtering in this afternoon is killing almost
all deep convection. A few light showers have developed near Lake
Okeechobee where a portion of the boundary camped out over the
northern Space and southern Treasure Coast Atlantic waters has
pushed onshore with a diffuse sea breeze. Could see a few showers
eventually develop to the north as we get a bit more daytime
heating, but most of this afternoon`s activity will be on the
western side of the peninsula where the sea breeze collision will
occur. Can`t rule out an isolated lightning storm, capable of
gusty winds to 40 mph and occasional cloud to ground lightning,
but the odds are very much against given the poor instability.
Overnight the pressure gradient tightens a little as the high
builds down the eastern seaboard, increasing onshore flow a bit.
Combined with an increase in moisture and a mid-level trough
swinging in aloft, rain chances over the Atlantic waters increase,
which could pile up along the coast due to coastal convergence as
they try to push onshore, producing heavy rainfall amounts of
1-3", and locally high amounts over 4". Up till the 12Z HREF
highest chances for heavy rainfall had been holding fairly
consistently along the Treasure and southern Space Coasts thank to
the camped out boundary, but this latest run is now showing
potential along the whole East Central Florida coast, where there
is a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. Chances
for lightning storms also increase, with isolated to scattered
storms capable of gusty winds to 45 mph and occasional to maybe
frequent lightning possible.
High seas across the local Atlantic waters combined with long
period swells will maintain hazardous conditions at all east
central Florida beaches. Breaking waves of 6 to 8 feet and a high
risk of rip currents will be present. Entering the surf is highly
discouraged!
Thursday-Friday...Potentially for locally heavy rainfall along
the coast continues as rain chances increase. Beach and marine
conditions remain hazardous as onshore flow pick ups again and
long period swell from distant Hurricane Imelda and the now
remnants of Humberto continue to reach our coast. Troughing over
the southeast becomes cutoff by ridging building over the eastern
half of the CONUS, while at the surface deep high pressure slides
down the eastern seaboard, causing the pressure gradient to
tighten again. Winds become more easterly, increasing to 10-15 mph
with gusts to 25 mph inland and 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
along the coast in the afternoons. Moisture continue to gradually
increase, supporting scattered (possibly numerous across the
south) onshore moving showers and storms Thursday, increasing to
scattered to numerous across most of the area Friday. Highest
chances will be during the afternoon hours, but overnight chances
will be higher than normal, especially along the coast. Locally
heavy rainfall will remain possible, especially along the coastal
corridor from coastal convergence. Continue to call for rainfall
amounts of 1-3" with locally higher amounts over 4" along the
coast, where we keep a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk of excessive
rainfall each day. Chances for lightning storms remain fairly low
(30% or less) due to weak instability.
Saturday-Tuesday...Looking very wet and breezy through the long-
term forecast period. The ridge aloft is gradually shunted south
and offshore by a trough swinging across the CONUS, with the
cutoff low meandering around the base of ridge over the north Gulf
before eventually dissipating. Surface high pressure over the
eastern seaboard begins to push offshore, allowing a residual
surface boundary and associated high moisture to lift north into
central Florida. Moderate to fresh onshore flow will continue
through the period, and there is potential for a trough or even
weak low pressure system to develop along the axis of high
moisture, further enhancing onshore flow. As a result, forecast
calls for well above normal rain chances, continuing a risk for
heavy rainfall along the coast. Poor to hazardous beach and marine
conditions will be very slow to subside because of the continued
onshore flow, persisting through the weekend and possibly into
early next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
No significant chances to current and expected marine conditions.
Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are forecast across
the local Atlantic waters over the next several days. Swells from
Imelda and distant Hurricane Humberto combined with persistent
northeast to east winds of 15 to 25 knots will keep seas generally
between 7 to 12 feet through the period. Winds are forecast to
slowly decrease to 15 to 20 knots late weekend into early next
week, with seas subsiding even slower. A Small Craft Advisory for
these conditions remains in effect today through at least Saturday
night, though extensions in time across the local waters may
continue to be needed.
Scattered to numerous showers will continue to be possible across
the local Atlantic waters over the next several days as moisture
increases locally. Lower chances for storms, though development
cannot be fully ruled out. The main concerns with any storms
would be lightning strikes and heavy downpours.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Lower coverage of showers is forecast today across the interior as
slightly drier air begins to influence the area, mainly across the
interior. Any chance for showers will be confined to the coast,
likely south of KMLB where VCSH mention is carried thru the TAF
period. Northerly winds may be gusty at times, up to 15-18 knots
today and slightly higher tomorrow. Overnight, marine moisture
shifts farther onshore, bringing late showers to areas south of KMCO
which will persist beyond daybreak tomorrow, but confidence too low
to include beyond VCSH at this time. VFR will prevail, however brief
MVFR in occasional showers.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  83  72  82 /  50  50  50  70
MCO  73  85  72  85 /  40  50  20  60
MLB  75  84  75  83 /  60  60  50  70
VRB  74  84  75  84 /  60  60  50  70
LEE  72  85  71  84 /  30  40  20  50
SFB  73  85  72  84 /  50  50  30  60
ORL  74  84  72  84 /  40  50  30  60
FPR  74  83  74  84 /  60  70  50  70
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Schaper

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion