Mermentau, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

605
FXUS64 KLCH 231123
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
623 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An unsettled weather pattern will remain in place over the
  region today into Thursday.
- A cold front will push through the region Wednesday night into Thursday
  accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Drier and
  somewhat cooler air will filter into the region Thursday evening
  through the weekend.
- There is a Marginal Risk for flash flooding and severe weather
  on Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
An upper disturbance is currently propagating southeast across the
northern Rockies. A surface low is anticipated to develop ahead
of the upper disturbance over the central plains. The weak surface
low will eject east to northeast today and Wednesday ahead of the
upper disturbance. As the low moves east, a cold front will drop
south. Moisture will continue to increase locally between the
subtropical high to the east and the developing plains surface
low today and Wednesday. With a weakness aloft locally, scattered
afternoon convection will occur after inland moving nocturnal
showers and storms this morning.
Moisture will increase farther by Wednesday as the front
approaches and an upper disturbance moves into the area. The
unstable airmass may allow for an isolated strong to severe storm
with gusty winds being the main threat. Heavy rain leading to
localized flooding will also be a concern.
Showers and storms will continue into Thursday as the front slowly
moves through. Chances will decrease through the day as a drier
airmass filters in.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Cooler and drier conditions are expected for the extended period.
Temperatures will run at or slightly below climo averages through
the weekend and into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Nocturnal shower activity is moving onshore near/south of BPT/LCH
and will likely expand in coverage a bit through the morning
across the same general area. By the afternoon, convection will
begin to expand north and east, affecting AEX and the Acadiana
terminals. Away front convection, VFR conditions along with light
to moderate onshore winds will prevail. In/near convection, lower
CIGs, reduced VIS, and breezy winds will be possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Outside of convection winds and seas will be light and low. The
light onshore flow will persist into late Wednesday or early
Thursday until a cold front moves into the coastal waters.
By Thursday afternoon, winds will be from the north with gusts
close to 20 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Rain chances will remain elevated into early Thursday ahead of an
approaching cold front. 20 ft winds will remain light, less than
10 mph, with gusts staying below 15 mph. Midweek, the front will
move through with north winds dropping min humidity values below
40% during the afternoons through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  72  91  68 /  50  10  80  70
LCH  89  77  89  73 /  60  20  80  80
LFT  90  75  89  73 /  40  10  70  70
BPT  90  76  90  71 /  60  20  80  80
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...17

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion